[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 33.9N 27.8W AT 15/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT 290 NM S OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES MOVING N AT
19 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 33N-35N BETWEEN 26W-29W. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED CURRENTLY ON A 1009 MB LOW
CENTERED IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER
AND MOVE E-NE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY TOWARD
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO
PRODUCE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS BY 15/0600 UTC
GENERALLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W-88W. WINDS ACROSS THE NE GULF
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE FRIDAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. AS
THIS OCCURS...NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST IN THE SW NORTH ATLC BY 15/1800 UTC N OF 29N W OF 77W.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N10W TO
01N40W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
-MOSTLY SATURATED AND CLOUD-LADEN SKIES ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF
BASIN THIS EVENING AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. AN
APPROACHING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 98W HOWEVER IS
INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH THE SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW PRESSURE AREA THIS EVENING. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N96W EASTWARD TO
28N90W TO 27N84W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING
GENERALLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 88W-96W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE E-NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING
WITH IT THE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS MENTIONED
ABOVE...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION
BY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SOUTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE EVENTUAL ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE BASIN BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WITH OVERALL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZE CONDITIONS RESULTING THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. BY
SATURDAY...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS AND EMERGE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY GALE
FORCE N-NW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN THIS EVENING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND NEARLY
ZONAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW NOTED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS EVENING IS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO 18N88W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 16N BETWEEN 80W-88W.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS E-SE WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT PROVIDING FAIR
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SHALLOW LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT ON MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.

...HISPANIOLA...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
ISLAND. HOWEVER...A FEW LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC REGION THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SWINGS
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH ATLC. THIS TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N50W EXTENDING SW TO 30N53W THEN STATIONARY TO 24N70W TO
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT TO 30N. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 31N81W AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...WEAK RIDGING PREVAILS TO THE SE OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N58W. FARTHER
EAST...HURRICANE ALEX INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE BASIN WITH DETAILS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net