[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 31.5N 28.4W AT 14/1500 UTC OR
425 NM S OF THE AZORES MOVING NNE AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75
KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
50 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
N OF 31N BETWEEN 24W AND 32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE S OF 31N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

AS OF 1500 UTC A PAIR OF 1013 MB LOWS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...NEAR 27N95W AND 23N95W. THE
NORTHERNMOST LOW IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE ENE ACROSS
THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...REACHING N FLORIDA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE INTENSIFYING LOW
WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS N OF 27N E OF 85W
STARTING AT 1200 UTC FRIDAY. SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FT WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS PORTION OF THE GULF. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N21W TO 01N35W TO 02N44W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED S OF THE EQUATOR.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL US SUPPORTS A PAIR OF 1013 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS THAT AS OF 1500 UTC WERE LOCATED OVER THE W
GULF NEAR 27N95W AND 23N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN LOW TO THE SOUTHERN LOW TO 19N95W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE NORTHERN LOW TO 25N93W TO 23N87W. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE SURFACE FEATURES ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM DYNAMICS SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE SE GULF
FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 81W AND 90W...INCLUDING FL KEYS...AND
THE NW GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR THE ATLC COAST OF GEORGIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF
CURRENTLY SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS EAST OF THE
LOWS OVER THE GULF BASIN. LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE WINDS ARE
WEST OF THE LOWS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE NORTHERNMOST LOW
WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ENE ACROSS THE GULF. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INTENSIFYING LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE EAST
WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF FRIDAY MORNING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. CONVECTION WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW AND A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW AS THE
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 22N79W
TO 20N83W TO 16N88W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
180 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING A LARGE PORTION OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE N OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. MAINLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT A SMALL AREA OF FRESH WINDS S
OF 14N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. THE TAIL
END OF A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CARIBBEAN FRIDAY
NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
ARE OVER HISPANIOLA TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
31N52W TO 27N57W TO 25N63W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 24N70W TO 22N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ARE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO 30N. A DISSIPATING 1019 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 24N58W. NEWLY UPGRADED HURRICANE ALEX IS OVER
THE EASTERN ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS SOUTH OF ALEX EXTENDING
FROM 27N31W TO 18N37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISPLACED
TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL INCREASE W OF 75W E OF
FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO
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