[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX IS NEAR 30.1N 29.3W AT
14/0900 UTC...OR ABOUT 490 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES. ALEX IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...020 DEGREES...16
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 75
KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON ALEX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/
ADVISORIES ON ALEX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 140 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W.

A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
23N95W. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
25N89W. ONE PART OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 21N96W. ANOTHER PART OF THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N97W. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOWS THAT A WARM FRONT WILL BE ALONG 30N
BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 12 FEET WILL BE FROM THE WARM
FRONT TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. THE 36-HOUR FORECAST IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOWS THAT GALE-FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 12 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO THE
NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 78W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC AND THE CARIBBEAN
SEA/ATLANTIC OCEAN OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE AREAS THAT ARE CALLED...IRVING AND
METEOR...FOR GALE-FORCE TO STORM-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST
FOR THOSE AREAS. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS INDICATES...
SOUTHEAST NEAR GALE TO SEVERE GALE OVER WEST OF MADEIRA...THREAT
OF NORTH OR NORTHEAST NEAR GALE OVER AGADIR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 04N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
04N16W TO 01N18W...CURVING TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W...TO
04S32W...TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 05S37W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MOSTLY
FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS PRACTICALLY
THE ENTIRE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WARM FRONT...AND GALE-FORCE
WIND FORECAST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION NEAR THE WARM FRONT...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
87W AND THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FROM 27N SOUTHWARD
FROM 86W EASTWARD.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

IFR CONDITIONS...KXIH AND KEHC.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KGVX...KHQI...AND KATP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR AT HARLINGEN...AND AT SOME SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES
OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA...NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA
HAS BEEN REPORTING LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
OBSERVATIONS.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA-TO-26N61W-TO-32N57W RIDGE. THIS UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 25N65W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY FRONT AT 25N65W AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA..INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO BELIZE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 18N87W
21N77W 23N64W 28N50W 32N37W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

600 MB TO 800 MB NORTHEAST-TO-EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS
FROM COSTA RICA TO 20N FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD...EVEN ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 14/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.04 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO IS
REPORTING FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS.
LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA ARE REPORTING FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 180 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. THE
RIDGE WILL VARY A BIT DURING DAY TWO...BUT GIVE THE SAME
SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH A RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM A GUADELOUPE PASSAGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO NICARAGUA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. THE EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE WILL REMAIN FOR
DAY TWO...SENDING MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
BE FROM 90 NM TO 150 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH AN
EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD A BIT...AND IT WILL
PUSH SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF
DAY ONE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE FROM
18N60W AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE TO A POSITION THAT IS OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY ONE. THE
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER HISPANIOLA
ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH DAY TWO...AND IT WILL END UP ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF DAY TWO. EXPECT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W...TO JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA...TO 31N69W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 31N69W TO
33N74W AND 32N77W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 14/0000 UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/
SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.48 IN BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N58W...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N15W...
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N21W...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO 14N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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