[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX IS NEAR 28.7N 30.0W AT
14/0300 UTC...OR ABOUT 575 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES. ALEX IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...035 DEGREES...15 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 26W-32W.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON ALEX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
ALEX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCMAT1. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 250 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN
400 NM TO 900 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY...IN ABOUT
18 HOURS...AND MOVE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHERN
FLORIDA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
FORECAST IN ABOUT 30 HOURS TO PRODUCE NEAR GALE-FORCE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 10 FEET...FROM 28N
TO 29.5N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. GALE-FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN ABOUT 42 HOURS...WITH SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET...FROM 29N NORTHWARD TO THE WEST
OF 78W.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE AREAS THAT ARE CALLED...METEOR AND
IRVING...FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS INDICATES...CYCLONIC GALE OR
SEVERE GALE...WITH SEVERE OR VIOLENT GUSTS...IN IRVING.
A THREAT OF A SOUTHEAST NEAR GALE OR GALE IN THE WESTERN PART OF
MADEIRA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 07N20W AND 06N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N22W
TO 03N30W 01N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 43W...TO THE COAST
OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE MOSTLY FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 24W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS PRACTICALLY
THE ENTIRE AREA.

A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N96W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 21N92W...AND ANOTHER PART OF THE
TROUGH EXTENDS TO 25N97W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN
89W AND 96W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VFR CONDITIONS/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...AREAS OF RAIN AND VFR IN THE DEEP SOUTH. VFR/NO CEILINGS
ELSEWHERE IN THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA...NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...TYNDALL AIR FORCE BASE IN
PANAMA CITY MVFR VISIBILITY. THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA HAS
BEEN REPORTING LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LAST SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA-TO-26N61W-TO-32N57W RIDGE. THIS UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 25N67W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY FRONT AT 25N67W AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA..INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO BELIZE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 18N87W
21N77W 30N40W 32N38W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

600 MB TO 800 MB NORTHEAST-TO-EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS
FROM COSTA RICA TO 20N FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD...EVEN ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 14/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.04 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AT 14/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE COVERING
THE SKIES IN BARAHONA AT 14/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO IS REPORTING
FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND ANOTHER LAYER OF A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING. LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA ARE REPORTING FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 180 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. THE
RIDGE WILL VARY A BIT DURING DAY TWO...BUT GIVE THE SAME
SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH A RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM A GUADELOUPE PASSAGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO NICARAGUA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. THE EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE WILL REMAIN FOR
DAY TWO...SENDING MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
BE FROM 90 NM TO 150 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH AN
EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD A BIT...AND IT WILL
PUSH SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF
DAY ONE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE FROM
18N60W AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE TO A POSITION THAT IS OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY ONE. THE
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER HISPANIOLA
ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH DAY TWO...AND IT WILL END UP ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF DAY TWO. EXPECT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 32N72W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 32N72W TO 33N79W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 14/0000 UTC... ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.48 IN BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N53W...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 24N62W...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N14W...
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 22N22W...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO 12N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net