[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 988 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N35W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 23N28W
20N30W 14N40W 13N50W...TO 14N61W NEAR ST. LUCIA IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. EXPECT STORM-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 16 FEET TO 24 FEET WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF THE
CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ONLY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OR SO. EXPECT
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 14 FEET TO 21 FEET
ELSEWHERE WITHIN A RADIUS OF 120 NM OF THE CENTER. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 25N34W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 08N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN
23W AND 45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG IN CLUSTERS FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 25W AND
36W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 20W AND 40W...AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 17N34W 14N45W 13N55W 15N65W.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE AREA THAT IS CALLED...METEOR...
AND FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA THAT IS CALLED...CAPE
VERDE. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS INDICATES...THE PERSISTENCE OF
CYCLONIC GALE OR SEVERE GALE IN METEOR AND IRVING.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER AREA OF
SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA...TO 06N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
06N15W...TO 07N29W...CURVING THROUGH 05N40W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 47W...TO 01S48W ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 240 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 33N60W...TO 27N76W...TO 18N95W IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 26N95W TO 25N92W...TO 22N95W... AND
19N93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE AREA OF THE HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWESTERN FLOW.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VFR CONDITIONS/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
RIDGE...THAT EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA TO 24N61W BEYOND 32N56W.
THIS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF A
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 31N62W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N62W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...TO
26N70W...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF BELIZE NEAR 18N88W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 29N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 57W AND 66W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

600 MB TO 800 MB NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS FROM 13N TO 16N
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W...AND FROM 77W WESTWARD...EVEN ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 13/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.01 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AT 13/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WERE COVERING THE SKIES IN BARAHONA AT 13/0000
UTC. SANTO DOMINGO IS REPORTING FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA ARE
REPORTING FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE REMAINS
FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA TOWARD HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL RANGE FROM NORTHWEST
TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST DURING DAY ONE...AND FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST
DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE FROM 90 NM TO
150 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY ONE. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL BE THERE FOR DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N53W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N56W...TO 24N64W...TO
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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