[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN OCCLUDED 992 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N38W WITH THE FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT LOCATED NE OF
THE LOW NEAR 34N35W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS S-SW FROM
THE TRIPLE POINT TO 19N33W TO 14N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 19N-31N BETWEEN 26W-37W. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM N OF 22N
BETWEEN 39W-45W...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 20-28 FT. METEO-FRANCE
IS ALSO FORECASTING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE ZONES OF CAPE
VERDE AND METEOR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALSO...PLEASE
REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
04N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N17W TO 03N30W TO 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES BETWEEN 15W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

MOSTLY DRY MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SW FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE GULF
BASIN S OF AN APPROACHING MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO OVER WEST TEXAS
AND EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 26N94W TO 20N95W. CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY IF
THIS FEATURE W OF 90W. OVER THE SE GULF...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT S OF 25N AND E OF
90W AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA...THE KEYS AND STRAITS...AND THE FAR
W CUBA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NE FLOW
ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE S-CENTRAL CONUS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE BASIN AND INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE E ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WITH CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 17N87W TO
22N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE FAR W CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF W CUBA
AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE
BASIN GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS IS DEPICTED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE S-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 15N AND BETWEEN 71W-78W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO CONTINUE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN AND MOVE W WITH
CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHALLOW CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ISLAND ENHANCED BY THE TRADE WIND FLOW. A SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC W
OF 70W BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W
CARIBBEAN TO 23N81W TO 26N72W. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES A COLD FRONT
FROM THIS LAST POINT TO 31N62W. TO THE E...THE STRONG SURFACE
LOW DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE COVERS THE
MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN BETWEEN 26W-48W. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS
E OF 26W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION WHILE
THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN. THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING E
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE EXPECTED MAINLY E
OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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