[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 992 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N40W.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER BEYOND 29N41W AND
32N39W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 26N35W 18N40W
15N53W...TO 17N67W ABOUT 50 NM TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO.
EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 18 FEET TO 29 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 40W
AND 47W. A SECOND AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS...FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11 FEET TO 16 FEET...IS
TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 35W AND THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 28N38W TO 20N33W...TO 10N31W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 29W AND
39W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 19N36W 15N46W 15N60W...17N70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE AREA THAT IS CALLED...METEOR...
AND FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA THAT IS CALLED...CAPE
VERDE. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA. THE OUTLOOK
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS INDICATES...NORTHEAST NEAR GALE OR GALE IN
IRVING...AND A CYCLONIC NEAR GALE OR GALE IN...IRVING...
METEOR...AND CAPE VERDE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LIBERIA NEAR 06N11W TO 05N15W
AND 03N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N19W...TO THE EQUATOR
ALONG 26W...TO 01S38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 16W AND 23W...
AND FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 49W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N83W TO THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 25N98W.

A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 26N95W TO 23N96W TO 20N96W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 90W
WESTWARD. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 90W
EASTWARD...NOT RELATED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR CONDITIONS...KGLS WITH A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...VFR/NO CEILINGS...EXCEPT FOR MVFR FOR 3 MILES OF
VISIBILITY IN SUGARLAND. LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...MVFR IN MARATHON KEY. IFR AT THE
NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
RIDGE...THAT EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA TO 26N62W AND 32N57W. THIS
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 26N62W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 26N62W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...TO
NORTHWESTERN CUBA...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO 17N88W OFF THE
COAST OF BELIZE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 12/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.05 IN BERMUDA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

600 MB TO 800 MB EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT RUNS FROM 20N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 72W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB IS IN THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 12/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.01 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER THE SKIES FROM BARAHONA TO SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO
PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE...WITH A
COLOMBIA TO HISPANIOLA RIDGE. WEST AND NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AT
THE START OF DAY TWO ENDS UP WITH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND A
RIDGE FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO 21N64W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
DAY ONE STARTS WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
ABOUT 40 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF DAY ONE AS THE ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER ENDS UP BEING ABOUT 110 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO AT THE END OF THE DAY. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO...WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER
ENDING UP BEING ABOUT 130 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE MOST
OF DAY ONE. NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WIND FLOW ENDS UP CROSSING
HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY ONE...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM PUERTO RICO TO JAMAICA. EXPECT THE SAME
EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO. DAY
TWO ENDS WITH SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N54W...TO 27N58W 24N66W...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N14W...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...
ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 10N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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