[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A DEEP LAYERED 982 MB LOW IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 31N45W WITH THE FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT LOCATED NE OF THE LOW
NEAR 35N39W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE
TRIPLE POINT TO 30N40W TO 21N50W TO THE N COAST OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 18.5N67W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION
N OF 26N BETWEEN 39W AND 52W. SEAS OF 13 TO 24 FT ARE EXPECTED
OVER THIS AREA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
08N12W TO 05N19W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO
03N30W TO 02N40W TO 01S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 20W AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO MEXICO SUPPORTS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N82W TO 24N88W. NO
PRECIPITATION IS NOTED WITH THIS FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS S
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS
DOMINATE THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
COVER THE WESTERN GULF. COOL AND STABLE AIR SUPPORTS
STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP E OF THE THE MEXICO COAST
ALONG 96W WITH SHOWERS. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 23N81W TO 20N85W TO
17N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60 NM NW OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED
BY DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT ALONG THE N COAST OF PUERTO RICO SUPPORTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE S OF 16N
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
ARE ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT N OF THE NW CARIBBEAN COLD FRONT. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC DUE TO A COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA NEAR PUERTO
RICO. THESE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE S OF THE ISLAND BY
TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC FROM 31N72W TO CUBA NEAR
23N81W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM SE
OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. A
SECONDARY...DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N79W TO 29N81W.
FARTHER EAST...A 982 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N45W WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 31N40W TO
23N47W TO 19N58W TO THE N COAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 18.5N67W.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING N OF 26N. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 22N. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND CLUSTERS
OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 22
N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE WESTERN ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
E TO 30N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SE OF THE FRONT. THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
WILL MOVE SE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND CONVECTION ALONG AND E OF
THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY N OF 20N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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