[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN OCCLUDED 992 MB LOW IS ANALYZED W OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N65W WITH
THE FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT LOCATED NE OF THE LOW NEAR 36N60W. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 30N62W
TO N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N69W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GALE
FORCE WINDS AROUND THE LOW CENTER WHILE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
NOTED WELL N OF THE LOW. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
4N9WTO 01N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 01N13W TO 00N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA FROM 02S-04S BETWEEN 38W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER N TEXAS. A 1010 MB LOW IS
CENTERED N OF TAMPA BAY FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 27N82W
25N83W 23N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 27N E OF 82W. 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 140 KT
JETSTREAM IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 27N WITH BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW AND TROUGH TO
MOVE E INTO THE ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE TEXAS
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE NW GULF.
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NE GULF IN THE WARM
SECTOR.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO
...AND HISPANIOLA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE NICARAGUA. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN HAS VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS ALSO N OF HISPANIOLA MOVING E.
EXPECT A CLEARING TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS
MOSTLY SE OF THE ISLAND MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N75W. A
GALE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N65W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO N OF
HISPANIOLA. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N18W TO 27N33W TO 27N46W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONTS
TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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