[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051725
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

WEST ATLANTIC GALE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N62W
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA.  A
SECOND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 32N67W WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTS AND ARE
OBSERVED OVER AND EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE MIAMI RADAR.
SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT ARE S-SW 20-30 KT NORTH
OF 27N.  SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ARE N-NE 20-25 KT
ONLY NORTH OF 30N. SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT ARE NW-
NE 20-25 KT NORTH OF 25N.  THE TWO FRONTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
MERGE BY WEDNESDAY AND QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BUT WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE EAST OF 67W.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CUBA IS ANTICIPATED TO
SLOWLY PULL OUT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND DEEPEN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A NEW UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH REACHES
THE SURFACE LOW. SURFACE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH GALE
FORCE NEAR THE LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD
RETAIN ITS FRONTAL FEATURES...IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THE LOW WILL
BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...DESPITE ITS QUITE LOW
LATITUDE OF OCCURRENCE. CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR OVER THE BAHAMAS
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE SYSTEM LIFTS FAR ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT
GHANA NEAR 05N03W TO 03N12W.  THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT
TO THE EQUATOR AT 37W.  NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITH THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF ONE OF
THE STRONGER COLD FRONTS THUS FAR THIS WINTER. NE SURFACE WINDS
15-25 KT ARE OCCURRING UNIFORMLY OVER THE GULF. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION IS SEEN.  HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN OF MEXICO.
THESE ARE BEING OBSERVED PRIMARILY THROUGH THE SABANCUY RADAR IN
THE YUCATAN AND THE 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND VEER TO EASTERLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. RAINFALL IN THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY FADE BY THURSDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAK 1014 MB FRONTAL LOW IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N79W.  A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO 17N84W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY AND EXTENDS TO NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...AS SEEN BY THE LIGHTNING
OBSERVATIONS AND THE 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  ADDITIONALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
AND IMPACTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO.  SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY
10 KT NE...WHILE WINDS EAST OF THE FRONT ARE 10-15 KT E TO SE.
SURFACE WINDS PEAK AROUND 20 KT JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY FADE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AS THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
LIKEWISE...THE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN APPEAR TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AS SEEN IN
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.  THESE SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE AS THE ENHANCED MOISTURE AREA MOVES WESTWARD TO REACH
HISPANIOLA BY THURSDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS INDUCED BY DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. BY
THURSDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE BY ENHANCED LOW TO MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD HISPANIOLA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SEE ABOVE DISCUSSION IN SPECIAL FEATURE REGARDING WEST ATLANTIC
GALE BEING PREDICTED.  ELSEWHERE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS WESTWARD TO 31N35W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.  EXCEPT FOR CONDITIONS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY EASTERLY 10-20 KT
ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC.  HIGHEST WINDS ARE NE 20-
25 KT BETWEEN 10-20N EAST OF 50W.  THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN
SOME AS THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIMINISHES DURING
THE NEXT DAY.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CWL
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