[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON N TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 05N09W
TO 03N11W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT TO 00N26W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS E OF 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE HIGH IS BUILDING ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN WHILE CLOUDINESS
AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
MAINLY S OF 23N WITH HIGHER CONCENTRATION OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A
MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT A SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N82W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR
16N86W WHILE ANOTHER PORTION OF THE FRONT EXTENDS NE OF THE LOW
REACHING W-CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONTS AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOW. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED E OF NICARAGUA FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SHALLOW
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO EXTEND
FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS WITH SHOWERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS INDUCED BY DIURNAL HEATING.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR W ATLANTIC EXTENDING
FROM 28N80W TO 31N76W. E OF THIS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
W CARIBBEAN AND W-CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR 23N78W TO
27N72W TO 31N68W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED ALONG THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N38W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO CONTINUE MOVING E
WITH CONVECTION. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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