[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021749 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS
AND A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 21N W OF THE FRONT UNTIL 1800 UTC
TODAY...WHEN THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO JUST BELOW
GALE FORCE. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLC FROM THE W AFRICA
COAST NEAR 05N09E TO 05N01W TO 04N13W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES TO 03N20W TO 00S30W TO 02S36W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 02W AND 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
W ATLC TO CENTRAL FL...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY
FRONT TO 27N83W TO 24N90W TO 22N94W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG AND WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER TX AND THE FRONT
SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE NW OF THE
FRONT. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE SE OF THE
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ENERGY
MOVING SW TO NE ACROSS THE NW GULF SUPPORTS PATCHES OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN NW OF A LINE FROM 25N97W TO 29N83W. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL HELP
TRANSITION THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE E GULF TO A COLD FRONT
WITH THE FRONT THEN PROGRESSING S OVER THE SE GULF AND S FL
LATE SUNDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS CONTINUES TO
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN BASIN TODAY. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED PATCHES OF SHOWERS
IN SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE MAINLY N OF 14N
OVER THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A SMALL AREA OF STRONG TRADE
WINDS OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST N OF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE WINDWARD LOCATIONS OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. NO
DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N70W TO 29N75W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR
27N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND NW OF THE FRONT.
MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC S OF 31N IS
DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB
HIGH NEAR 28N33W. THIS RIDGING SUPPORTS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLC S OF
27N...MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS N OF 26N BETWEEN 40W AND
70W...AND LIGHT WINDS FROM 27N TO 31N E OF 40W.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY BECOME
STATIONARY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES NE ALONG THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL THEN TRANSITION BACK TO A COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 30N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TO CENTRAL CUBA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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LATTO
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