[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO 04N19W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG TO 0N30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S TO 03N BETWEEN
20W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR
28N83W PROVIDES RETURN LIGHT FLOW TO THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR
VARIABLE WIND AT THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH IN THE NE GULF AND THE
SE BASIN WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N86W TO 23N86W.
ALOFT...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SW TO W FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE
BASIN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERY DRY AIR. LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN AS INDICATED BY CIRA LAYER
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THUS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. BOTH
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES AND THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE TUE MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW
GULF WATERS EARLY WED MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND
IT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE REMNANTS OF A FORMER DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ARE
ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N81W TO EASTERN
HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W...WITH SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
ITS AXIS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...THUS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE SHALLOW MOISTURE ENHANCES
SCATTERED SHOWERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL BASIN WHERE NE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W TONIGHT AND WILL
DISSIPATE DURING TUE MORNING HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE OCCURRING MAINLY OVER NW HISPANIOLA
ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE ISLAND. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVER THE ISLAND IN TRADE WIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
28N70W COVERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS N OF 23N. S OF 23N...THE TAIL
OF A FRONT STALLS WHILE ITS DISSIPATE FROM 20N62W TO THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N73W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A
MIDDLE LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N46W AND CONTINUES SW
TO 20N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 20N TO
40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 20N54W SW TO
JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N61W...ENHANCING SHOWERS
OVER THESE ISLANDS AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER
TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER E ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN
WITH SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY WED...THEN WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE
LATER THAT DAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SW N ATLC WATERS
BY WED AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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