[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W AFRICA COAST AND OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N11W TO 03N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 02N30W TO 02N40W...TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 20W AND 37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 06N
BETWEEN 37W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST NEAR
30N93W AND DOMINATES THE GULF BASIN. SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY
INDICATES LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TO SE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF W
OF 90W...AND MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS E OF 90W. A
SURFACE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY OVER THE SE GULF...AS OF 1500 UTC HAS
EXITED THE GULF BASIN. CURRENTLY...THE GULF BASIN IS FREE OF
CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE
EAST TO NE FLORIDA. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...WINDS OVER THE W
GULF WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SOUTHEASTERLY. WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WILL BECOME NE TO E. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W
TO 19N79W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N80W TO 21N84W TO 21N87W OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AS OF 1500 UTC. THIS TROUGH IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
BACKING AND INCREASE OF NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE N OF THE TROUGH.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH
MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM SW
TO NE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF A
HAITI...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HAITI AND COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN TACT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO
23N80W...AND A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION
NEAR 31N58W TO 22N70W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 23N. FARTHER EAST AN
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N42W SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 24N BETWEEN 30W AND 41W. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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