[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241719
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 30N85W TO 19N93W. AS THIS FRONT CONTINUES
MOVING E...A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE NW GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
BASIN IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE
FRONT MAINLY N OF 26N AND W OF 90W. EXPECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO
00N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 03S40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS BETWEEN 03S-03N BETWEEN 16W-38W. IS
FROM EQUATOR TO 3S BETWEEN 21W-25W... AND FROM 01S-07S BETWEEN
30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS GULF WATERS EXTENDING FROM 30N85W
TO 19N93W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW GULF
WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TO
THE E OF THE FRONT...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM 24N87W TO
29N83W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SQUALL LINE
AFFECTING THE FAR E GULF WATERS AND PORTIONS OF W AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S OF 26N WHILE A MODERATE TO
FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH
CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS FEATURE AFFECTING
THE NORTHERN GULF MAINLY N OF 28N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING BENIGN WEATHER. THE ONLY AREA WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WHERE A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N72W TO 19N75W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN WITH
CONVECTION ENHANCING WINDS/SEAS. SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ENHANCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT FOR
THIS FEATURE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC W
OF 77W AS A COLD FRONT AND SQUALL LINE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N66W TO
24N72W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WAS
ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM 32N47W TO 25N52W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE
OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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