[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT 21/1800 UTC. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA COVERS THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO
AND EXTENDING S OVER THE N CARIBBEAN. THIS RIDGE IS PRODUCING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PRODUCING THE
GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W ALONG 4N13W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 15W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1.5N
TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S MEXICO OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO THE PLAIN STATES GIVING THE GULF OF MEXICO NW FLOW ALOFT.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVER THE
SE GULF THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH
NEAR BERMUDA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS W-SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO TEXAS/NE MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ARE ACROSS THE SE GULF AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE. SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE
BASIN THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS E OF 83W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TODAY
THEN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW
GULF MON NIGHT REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE TEXAS EARLY TUE
WHERE IT WILL STALL THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF TUE NIGHT SWEEPING ACROSS THE
GULF AND OUT OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. STRONG TO GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE W GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NEAR ZONAL NW WINDS ALOFT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ELSEWHERE. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE BASIN AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE
TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W TO 17N64W.
LINGERING MOISTURE AIDED BY THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE
FROM 16N64W TO 15N82W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC/GULF OF MEXICO AND N CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...WINDWARD
PASSAGE...AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY. STRONG TO
GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH BELOW
GALE FORCE LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS E LATER TODAY WINDS WILL DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE BY
EARLY MON.

HISPANIOLA...

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. LINGERING
MOISTURE TO THE S COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD
BRING POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC AND EXTENDS INTO THE N
CARIBBEAN AND GULF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH JUST E OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N64W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N50W TO
19N43W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N46W TO
28N48W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 24N53W THEN
DISSIPATES ALONG 23N55W 23N59W THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
NEAR 17N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF FRONT IS
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NE OF
THE AZORES. THE FRONT HAS BEGUN TO STALL AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON THEN
WILL SHIFT NE TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES BRIEFLY ACROSS THE
NW WATERS BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF SE CONUS WED NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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