[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202318
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-
77W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 01N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05S BETWEEN 18W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
31N73WEXTENDS ITS RIDGE TO THE SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
A GENTLE TO MODERATE SE FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE GULF WHILE A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW IS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS PULSING ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALSO EXTENDS S
REACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM PREVAILS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS S AS A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THEN ENDING NEAR 16N64W. CLOUDINESS
AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
AFFECTING THE NE CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF 15N AND E OF 75W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS MOST
OF THE BASIN EXCEPT THE CENTRAL PORTION FROM 70W-80W WHERE FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS ARE DEVELOPING. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE FRONT TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO BE PREDOMINATELY S OF THE ISLAND DUE TO
TRADEWIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR
31N73W. TO THE E...A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC STARTING AS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N48W TO 24N56W THEN AS
A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 16N64W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE COLD FRONT MAINLY N OF
25N BETWEEN 44W-51W. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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