[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA/GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA...

THE 12-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONSISTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A.
EXPECT SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 13 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST
OF 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE SECTIONS THAT ARE CALLED...
CANARIAS...CAPE VERDE...AND CAP BLANC. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
CONSISTS OF...NORTHEASTERLY NEAR GALE IN...CANARIAS...CAPE
VERDE...CAP BLANC...AND THEN IN IRVING...METEOR...AND
MADEIRA LATER.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 06N17W AND 03N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 03N20W...TO 01N26W AND 01N36W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG
44W...AND CONTINUING TO 01S47W IN COASTAL BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 11W
AND 18W...AND FROM 01N TO 02N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WAS
DIGGING THROUGH EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO...NOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 88W
WESTWARD. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS...AND
INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 81W IN CENTRAL FLORIDA AND 88W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W...AND
IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR...KHHV...KVAF...KGUL...KHQI...KEHC...KATP...KMDJ...AND KIPN.

KATP AND KVQT HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND
VFR...WITH THE VISIBILITIES...DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS.

VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN SLIDELL. IFR WITH
RAIN AND THUNDER AT THE LAKEFRONT AIRPORT FOR NEW ORLEANS. MVFR
AT THE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. IFR AT THE NEW ORLEANS
DOWNTOWN AIRPORT. MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.
FLORIDA...RAINIS BEING REPORTED IN DESTIN AND CRESTVIEW...IN
THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...APALACHICOLA AND TALLAHASSEE
WITH RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER...LIGHT RAIN IN PERRY.
MVFR IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. RAIN IS FALLING AND/OR
WAS FALLING EARLIER IN MANY PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
AND FROM PERRY WESTWARD IN FLORIDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA TO 21N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTH CENTRAL NICARAGUA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO EASTERN HONDURAS. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
16/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.03 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...ARE PRESENT ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
23N68W...AND TO 19N69W IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 24N
BETWEEN 66W AND 71W.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AT 16/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
BARAHONA...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...MVFR AT 2000 FEET...AT
16/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...MVFR AT
1200 FEET. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START
WITH WEST WIND FLOW MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST EARLY AND CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF DAY ONE AND
DURING ALL OF DAY TWO. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING
DAY ONE...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING DAY TWO.  THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-
TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. A COL POINT WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA DURING THE BEGINNING OF DAY TWO. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
HISPANIOLA WILL START WITH EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE NORTHEASTERN
PART WILL SEE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE MIDDLE OF DAY
TWO. THE COL POINT EVENTUALLY APPEARS TO BE FORECAST TO FORM ON
TOP OF HISPANIOLA. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THAT IS FROM 70W WESTWARD. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE ISLAND.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO
28N53W TO 23N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO
28N53W AND 24N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 25N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 37W AND 54W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO
FROM 22N NORTHWARD FROM 56W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N46W 19N43W
14N42W...THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FROM SIX HOURS AGODISSIPATED. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 27N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 37W
AND 43W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 600 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC
CENTER. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 23N37W 10N40W 05N47W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 05N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N47W 24N60W STATIONARY
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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