[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA STARTING AT 0000 UTC THIS EVENING UNTIL 1200 UTC MONDAY
MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 04N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 02N30W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
01N TO 05N BETWEEN 13W AND 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
CROSSES THE FL STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO 24N89W...WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA
BORDER AT 30N94W. NO CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EAST OF A LINE
FROM 30N90W TO 19N94W. MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE WEST OF THIS
LINE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND OUT
OF THE GULF BASIN. A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W
TO JAMAICA NEAR 18N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN
NE FLOW IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS S OF 19N W OF 83W...INCLUDING
BELIZE AND NORTHERN HONDURAS. FRESH NE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT STRONG TO
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO GALE FORCE N
OF THE COLOMBIA COAST TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO NEAR THE TURKS
AND CAICOS AND OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUPPORTING SHOWERS E OF
71W OVER HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ISLAND AS WELL BY THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N64W TO 27N70W TO
24N80W...AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N60W TO 23N67W TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FARTHER
EAST...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N45W SUPPORTS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 37W AND 47W. A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE
AZORES DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SUBTROPICAL ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 30N56W TO THE SE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL
CUBA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE UPPER LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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