[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT
ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING AND
AGAIN SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 5N9W ALONG 3N12W TO 3N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N27W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S MEXICO OVER THE PLAIN STATES
INCLUDING THE W GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE W
ATLC COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS A
WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO BETWEEN FORT LAUDERDALE AND NAPLES ALONG 67N88W TO
OVER TEXAS NEAR MATAGORDA BAY. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATE THE GULF LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE GULF BY EARLY SUN.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUN AND TO THE W ATLC ON MON. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MON EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BASIN. A REMNANT WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W ACROSS CENTRAL JAMAICA ALONG 17N81W
TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 20N W OF 80W AND W OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR
WEATHER THIS EVENING. SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH SUN EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THAT WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
ISLAND MAINLY W OF 70W. THE REMNANT MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO THE NEXT WEEK GIVING THE ISLAND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N68W ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND THEN ACROSS S
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. DRY AIR
ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF LINE FROM
BERMUDA TO E CUBA LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N58W ALONG 26N66W
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1033
MB HIGH NEAR 32N32W. THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL
REACH FROM NEAR 32N66W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND
FROM 32N60W THROUGH 27N65W TO NW CUBA SUN MORNING. THE N PORTION
OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE THE S
PORTION WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM 25N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA SUN
NIGHT AND MON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S ACROSS THE W
ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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