[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122323
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 05N10W AND CONTINUES TO 02N22W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 00N38W. TO NORTHERN BRAZIL COASTAL
WATERS NEAR 01N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG
THESE BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N88W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
THE AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THIS WEATHER REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM
15N83W TO 20N73W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 100 NM ON
EITHER OF THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N AND
BETWEEN 75W-80W. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND E CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT. A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL PICK UP SPEED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN PULSING TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS STARTING TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT OVER W ATLANTIC WATERS EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT FOR THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N52W TO NW HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N73W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS E ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE W
ATLANTIC...W OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER BASIN E OF THE FRONT IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N30W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE W ATLANTIC WATERS BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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