[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING...LEADING TO GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND
76W. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY...PULSING BACK TO GALE
FORCE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02N36W TO 00N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 19W AND 29W AND FROM 01N TO 06N
BETWEEN 32W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH OVER WEST-CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 24N93W. GENTLE VARIABLE WIND
COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS WHERE
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED. WATER VAPOR AND CIRA LAYER
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND SUPPORT THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA SW TO 19N84W TO 16N87W. THE REMNANTS OF A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ARE ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 18N78W TO 11N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE FRONT AND THE TROUGH. FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE
TROUGH S OF 21N...BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
ARE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W AND
80W...EXCEPT GALE-FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE
REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES. THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE NEXT TWO DAYS DUE TO
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLC WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT SUPPORTS FOG OVER WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NORTHERN
HAITI. THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN CUBA AND
NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT AND
WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N64W SW TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HAPPENING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N31W.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT E TO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRIDAY WHERE IT
WILL STALL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC WATERS
SAT MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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