[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...LEADING COLD FRONT IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS FROM 32N63W TO 23N72W ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N75W. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT TRAILS FROM 32N72W ALONG 27N76W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE W OF THE
LEADING COLD FRONT N OF 27N W OF 68W. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT
ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING
THEN PULSE AGAIN THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N11W ALONG 10N17W TO 6N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 4N30W 2N39W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND W ATLC INCLUDING THE N
GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE SUPPORTED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE W
ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER E TEXAS. SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE S GULF IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE S GULF.
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF LINE
FROM FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 23N89W TO CABO ROJO MEXICO. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE N GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF VENEZUELA ACROSS
PUERTO RICO INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BASIN. A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS NW HAITI NEAR
20N73W ALONG THE E TIP OF JAMAICA THEN S ALONG 14N80W TO OFF THE
COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N82W. THE LEADING COLD FRONT IS JUST TO
THE W EXTENDING ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N75W JUST W OF JAMAICA TO
NE HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. BROKEN TO OVER LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 20N W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO 83W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
E MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MERGED FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD OVER THE CARIBBEAN IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT HELPING TO INCREASE TRADE WINDS TO
GALE FORCE OFF NE COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NW HAITI WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT W OF THE ISLAND WILL MERGE WITH THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT NW HAITI THIS AFTERNOON. THE MERGED FRONT WILL
DRIFT E ACROSS THE ISLAND AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MERGED FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL BUT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A SERIES OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. TO THE E IS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N60W ALONG 25N67W TO ACROSS NW HAITI NEAR 20N73W. THE
LEADING COLD FRONT EXTENDS JUST TO THE W ALONG 32N63W ALONG
26N68W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO OVER E CUBA AND INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N75W. A THIRD REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
FURTHER W ALONG 32N72W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TO 24N81W. BROKEN TO OVER MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE W ATLC W OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO 80W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE COLD FRONTS. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 32N32W. THE LEADING COLD FRONT
WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
DRIFTING E REACHING FROM 32N53W TO 20N70W FRI MORNING WHERE IT
WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. THE NEXT FRONT THE ENTER THE W ATLC
WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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