[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM 32N73W
ALONG 27N77W TO W CUBA NEAR 23N82W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF
27N WITHIN 270 NM W OF FRONT AND N OF 27N WITHIN 540 NM E OF
FRONT. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE CONTINUING THROUGH WED
EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC IS
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE N OF 27N E OF 87W THROUGH THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS WED NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING
THEN PULSE AGAIN THU EVENING ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N10W TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 3N28W 1N41W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 47W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 18W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC AND N GULF OF
MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO NEAR 21N90W TO MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. STRONG WINDS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER
THE GULF S OF LINE FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ALONG 26N90W TO
TAMPICO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN OVER THE GULF IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER NE
MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA
INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE BASIN. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HAITI NEAR 20N72W OVER
THE E TIP OF JAMAICA THEN S ALONG 12N81W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA
NEAR 9N81W. BROKEN TO OVER LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE FRONT. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES N OF
SAINT LUCIA. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT AND ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ALONG
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA THROUGH EARLY THU. WINDS WILL PULSE TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT ON WED
NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NW HAITI WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL STALL OVER W HAITI TONIGHT INTO
WED. THIS FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL GIVE
THE ISLAND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
LATE WED INTO THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E CONUS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N73W ALONG
27N77W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W CONTINUING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF
THE FRONT. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT TO
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA. A
REMNANT QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N56W ALONG 29N62W TO 22N66W THEN INTO THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS HAITI NEAR 20N72W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH S OF
THE AZORES AND W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH FROM BERMUDA TO HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE WED BEFORE
MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THU
NIGHT. GALES WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF
29N THROUGH WED. A THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN
NE FLORIDA AND BERMUDA SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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