[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO...

THE 12-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TO BE NEAR 30N77W. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 27N77W AND 23N79W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 14 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO
THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 80W. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A
COLD FRONT FROM 31N69W TO 21N75W. EXPECT STORM-FORCE WEST-TO-
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 14 FEET TO 25 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 77W. EXPECT GALE-
FORCE WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12
FEET TO 20 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF
LIBERIA NEAR 04N08W TO 04N14W AND 03N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 03N20W TO 02N25W AND 02N30W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 04N
BETWEEN 20W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 01N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS DIGGING THROUGH
EAST TEXAS ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO NOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A...INCLUDING FLORIDA/GEORGIA...ALABAMA...AND
MISSISSIPPI. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CUTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...FROM 25N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN FLORIDA AND TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 240 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W 28N76W...TO 22N81W IN CUBA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS IN TEXAS NEAR LAREDO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOON IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. FROM LOUISIANA TO
ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...IFR IN BROOKSVILLE AND THE
TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT. MVFR IN MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAMPA-
ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR IN PUNTA GORDA AND IN
PARTS OF THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA...NAPLES...AND IN
MARATHON KEY. LIGHT RAIN AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
RAIN IS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
HOMESTEAD UNTIL JACKSONVILLE.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT CUTS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...TO 20N84W IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TO A 1017 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N86W NEAR ROATAN OF HONDURAS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAIN AND DRIZZLE AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH CUBA NEAR 22N80W
TO EASTERN HONDURAS.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 66W
EASTWARD. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
21N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...AND
SOUTHEASTERLY 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 07/0100 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
FOR BARAHONA AT 07/0000 UTC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO
PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO AND PUERTO
PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE...AND THEN BECOME
WESTERLY AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE ORIENTATION OF A RIDGE WILL
CHANGE AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MOVES FROM
NICARAGUA EASTWARD TO 70W. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT HAITI WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE. THE CENTER WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH TIME...PUSHING SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY
WILL DISSIPATE ABOUT BY THE END OF THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO.
WEST WIND FLOW DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE WILL
COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE.
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 200 NM TO THE
EAST OF SAINT LUCIA AT THE END OF DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY DURING DAY TWO...PUSHING MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N50W TO 25N70W...TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN FLORIDA AND
CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 28N67W...TO A
1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
27N80W...JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N80W TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA NEAR
23N82W...TO A ROATAN 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF RAIN ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N60W TO 27N70W 26N77W...TO CUBA NEAR 23N79W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/0000 UTC...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.09 IN BERMUDA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N55W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO
26N BETWEEN 50W AND 63W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 66W
EASTWARD. DISSIPATING CLOUDINESS FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 48W AND
56W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 25N27W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N32W AND 14N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 23W
AND 31W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 29N FROM 30W EASTWARD.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
60W EASTWARD. A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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