[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061236 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 06 2016

UPDATED TO ADD SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA
TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC BASIN AS WELL
AS FLORIDA. NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK/LEFT SIDE OF THE LOW
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT...SPREADING
EASTWARD THROUGH MON. WINDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
STORM FORCE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON N OF 29N/31N BETWEEN 65W-
77W...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND FRONT ALSO
INCREASING TO GALE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF
LIBERIA NEAR 04N09W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N09W TO 04N16W
05N19W 04N22W AND 03N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
36W AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 14W AND 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE NORTH OF
25N TO THE WEST OF 90W...AND TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM
FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W TO MEXICO NEAR 20N97W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH EAST
TEXAS. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COASTAL LOUISIANA...TO THE MEXICO
COAST ALONG 20N...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 18 HOURS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR...KBQX...KVAF...AND KATP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...NEARBY RAIN WITH THUNDER IN VICTORIA AND SUGARLAND.
RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER FROM THE HOUSTON IAH AIRPORT TO
HUNTSVILLE. MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS. LOUISIANA...MVFR AT THE
NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS. FROM MISSISSIPPI TO
FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...TO 28N70W...TO THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N75W...TO 21N80W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM
21N80W TO 18N83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...ENDING IN WESTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAIN AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO HONDURAS.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND TO
THE EAST OF 65W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 06/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.07 IN GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...AND NORTH-TO-
NORTHEAST 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FOR
BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA
TO PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY AS AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THEN A RIDGE...ARE FORECAST TO PASS
TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT WEST-TO-
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500
MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A
CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...BRINGING
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA...FOR DAY ONE. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO...AS THE ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF DAY ONE...BECOMING EAST-TO-
SOUTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE END OF DAY
ONE. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...
TO 28N70W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W...TO 21N80W. THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 21N80W TO 18N83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ENDING IN WESTERN HONDURAS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 25N69W TO 22N72W IN
THE BAHAMAS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N59W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W EASTWARD. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 19N68W IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MONA PASSAGE. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 23N68W AND 26N89W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ALSO WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N63W AT THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA...15N57W 18N55W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N30W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 400 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
60W EASTWARD. A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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