[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060009
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

STRONG GALE TO STORM WARNING IS FORECAST FOR THE W ATLANTIC IN
48 HOURS N OF 29N BETWEEN 75W-79W. SEE LATEST ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS
FORECAST.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR
05N09W TO 05N17W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N18W AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N33W TO 01S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02S TO 03N W OF 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. A 1034 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N91W. 10-15 KT NE TO E
SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
GULF S OF 28N AND W OF 87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS HOWEVER THE GULF HAS ZONAL FLOW
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BE OVER
THE NW GULF IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR 25 KT
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO BE OVER THE W GULF WITH SHOWERS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF
THE FRONT. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE FRONT TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW JUST N OF PUERTO RICO IS STARTING TO MOVE TOWARDS
HISPANIOLA. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE AND MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AS
A TROUGH SAT. THIS COULD GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N72W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AT 24N77W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW
TO 26N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE LOW. A
1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N44W PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N60W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 18N-15N BETWEEN 54W-60W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 25N32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE CENTER
FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 16W-26W. EXPECT IN 48 HOURS FOR A GALE TO
BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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