[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF AND STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO GENERATE GALE-
FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW BASIN THU MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH
THU NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N13W AND CONTINUES TO 04N21W 01N36W TO
01S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05S TO 04N W OF
35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE N TO NE CONUS THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 994
MB LOW NEAR 44N82W...FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ENTERING
THE GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W AND
CONTINUING ALONG 25N92W TO A 1010 MB LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 20N94W. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT
ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NE GULF
SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N
OF 27N. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FOG N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W
AND 90W...COINCIDING WITH IFR IMAGERY MEDIUM TO HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT IN THE SW BASIN TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS
THU. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE
BASIN FRI MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS
PROVIDING STABLE/FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS
OBSERVED MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH MAY
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF
HISPANIOLA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE ALSO
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W AS INDICATED BY LATEST SCAT
DATA...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH SAT PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN FRI MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PROVIDES STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 45N62W EXTENDS
SW ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO 60W. TO THE EAST...A NARROW MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SUPPORT A
1015 MB LOW NEAR 24N55W AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
28N56W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 20N58W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRES
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N TO 30N
BETWEEN 48W AND 57W. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRES ANCHORED BY A 1042 MB HIGH NW OF PORTUGAL. A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN WILL ENTER THE
SW N ATLC EARLY FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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