[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE W
GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF
STARTING THU MORNING S OF 21N W OF FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM
30N83W ALONG 22N92W TO 18.5N93W. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE
TO THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 3N15W ALONG 2N21W 3N32W THEN SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 16N-19N AND FROM 2N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE HAS SHARPENED DUE TO A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO
OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/0300
UTC ENTERS THE GULF OVER VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA AND EXTENDS TO
A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 25N95W CONTINUING S INTO MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT N OF 28N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA
TO ACROSS FLORIDA THEN INTO THE W ATLC ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E REACHING FROM FLORIDA BIG
BEND TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE THU NIGHT
BEFORE EXITING THE AREA FRI. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT THU INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE
THE GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE FRONT OVER THE SW GULF THU. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE GULF INTO THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA INTO THE CARIBBEAN
NEAR 11N75W THEN ALONG 18N81W ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH SAT PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING PATCHES ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS DOTTING THE BASIN FROM 14N-20N INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
HAITI. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN
THU NIGHT EXTENDING FROM W CUBA TO N/CENTRAL HONDURAS WHERE IT
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY FRI THROUGH SAT. THE 1016 MB LOW N OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE THEN BE NE OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED. THE LOW WILL THEN DISSIPATE THU WHILE
THE SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN DRIFT
WESTWARD INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT AND FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOISTURE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY CONCENTRATED OVER HAITI
TONIGHT. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DISSIPATE WED GIVING THE
ISLAND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THU NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT AND FRI
WHICH COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS FOR THE ISLAND ON FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA TO ACROSS FLORIDA THEN INTO THE W ATLC
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA CONTINUING N TO OVER CANADA. A
WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N63W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING S TO 20N66W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N56W TO 23N55W GENERATING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF
22N BETWEEN 50W-59W. DIFFLUNCE AT THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 45W-49W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH N-
NE OF THE AZORES. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W
ATLC THU EVENING AND WILL EXTEND FROM 32N74W TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA FRI MORNING AND FROM 32N63W TO W/CENTRAL CUBA SAT
MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING. THE 1016 MB LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE TODAY AND BE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY THU. THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL THEN DRIFT W THU NIGHT AND FRI INTO THE SW ATLC AND NE
CARIBBEAN. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WATERS ON SUN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORM FORCE WINDS AS A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CONUS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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