[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 01 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THE COASTAL AREAS OF LIBERIA NEAR
06N10W TO 06N11W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N11W TO 05N20W AND
04N23W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 02N TO
07N BETWEEN 11W AND 26W...AND FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND
60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
03S34W 02N38W 02N42W 01S45W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING
MULTILAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 28N81W IN FLORIDA...TO
24N87W...TO 22N98W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
29N75W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 21N98W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LIFR...KXIH...KGLS...KVBS...KSPR...AND KDLP.

IFR...KBQX...KGVX...AND KEIR.

MVFR...KMZG...KBBF...KHHV...KHQI...KEHC...KVQT...KGRY...
AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR/MVFR IN THE LOWER VALLEY. LIFR IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS
GULF COAST AREAS OF CORPUS CHRISTI/ALICE/ROCKPORT. MVFR/IFR FROM
PALACIOS TO PORT LAVACA TO VICTORIA...AND BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/
LAKE JACKSON. A MIXTURE OF LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IS IN THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. LIFR IN
GALVESTON AND BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...LIFR IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS/SOUTHERNMOST AREAS. MISSISSIPPI...LIFR IN GULFPORT
AND BILOXI. MVFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...LIFR/IFR IN THE MOBILE
METROPOLITAN AREA. VFR IN GULF SHORES. FLORIDA...LIFR IN MILTON
AND CRESTVIEW. IFR FROM MARY ESTHER TO VALPARAISO TO DESTIN.
LIFR FROM PANAMA CITY TO MARIANNA. MVFR IN PUNTA GORDA. RAIN IN
MARATHON KEY AND IN THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA. RAIN IS
BEING REPORTED ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM HOMESTEAD TO
POMPANO BEACH.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AWAY FROM THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY
FROM 13N NORTHWARD FROM 70W EASTWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.01 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND NORTHEAST-
TO-EAST 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LA
ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...FOG AND
A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...MVFR...1000 FEET. PUERTO PLATA...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EITHER TO THE
NORTHWEST OR TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AT THE START OF DAY
ONE WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND BE ABOUT 230 NM TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY ONE. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF DAY ONE WILL BECOME WEST-TO-
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE SAME ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING DAY TWO. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
AT THE START OF DAY TWO WILL BECOME NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA RIDGE. EXPECT EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WITH AT LEAST ONE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING DAY ONE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP AT THE START OF DAY TWO IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD BY 600 NM AT THE END OF DAY TWO.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 30N51W 24N62W AND
23N71W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N TO 31W BETWEEN 48W AND 50W...AND FROM
32N TO 34N BETWEEN 38W AND 41W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 25 TO 28N BETWEEN 40W AND 53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 22N44W 24N56W 21N67W 22N77W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 36N29W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 30N31W...TO A 28N31W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 21N32W 16N33W...TO 08N42W. ONE SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 35N35W 30N34W 26N33W...AND ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 32WFROM 21N TO 25N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 32W AND 33W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 29N75W...ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR 21N98W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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