[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The pressure gradient will tighten between the surface ridge
over the west Atlantic and the lower pressure over South America
to support gale force winds overnight tonight across the south-
central Caribbean mainly from 11N-13N between 73W-76W. These
winds are expected to continue to pulse to gale force during the
overnight hours through Monday night. Please see the High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across southwest Africa into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 5N9W to 4N19W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 1N18W 2N38W to south of the equator near 46W.
Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
are from 2N-6N between 27W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge extends from the Caribbean across west Cuba and
the Florida peninsula giving the Gulf southwest flow aloft. A
surface trough extends at 31/2100 UTC from near Port Author,
Texas along 28N96W to over south Texas near Brownsville. The
upper ridge is advecting tropical moisture across Mexico and the
southeast CONUS to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 45 nm of the surface trough. A surface
ridge is shiftING eastward and is now anchored in the west
Atlantic with fresh to strong southerly return flow over the
Gulf that will prevail through Monday. A weak cold front will
move into the north Gulf Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The west Atlantic stationary front extends just east of the
Turks and Caicos through the Windward Passage to 19N75W. An
upper ridge dominates the remainder of the the Caribbean with
southwest to westerly flow aloft. Easterly trade winds are
generating isolated to scattered showers within 75 nm of a line
from southwest Haiti across Jamaica to northeast Honduras and
over the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands
northeast of a line from 13N61W to the Mona Passage. Fair weather
with possible isolated, low level showers are across the
remainder of the Caribbean this evening. The west Atlantic
surface ridge is shifting east into the central Atlantic through
Sunday and is supporting strong trade winds across the Caribbean
with pulses to gale force winds off the coast of Colombia
starting tonight. Please see the Special Features above.

HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are moving across the island this evening.
Showers will continue due to the frontal boundary to the west
and easterly trade winds. These showers will continue through
Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper ridge extends from the Caribbean across west Cuba and
the Florida peninsula giving the east Atlantic northwest flow
aloft. A surface ridge covers the west Atlantic into the Gulf of
Mexico anchored by a 1027 mb high near 31N69W. An upper trough
moving into the central Atlantic is supporting a cold front that
that extends through 32N52W along 25N58W to 23N64W where it
becomes stationary east of the Turks and Caicos into the
Windward Passage near 20N74W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
east of the cold front. A broad upper trough over the east
Atlantic is supporting a surface trough that extends through
32N20W to 26N22W and a cold front that now extends through
32N29W along 30N25W to 31N39W where it continues as a stationary
front to 32N42W. The west Atlantic cold front will move into the
central Atlantic while the stationary front portion
will dissipate through Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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