[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311053
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
553 AM EST SAT DEC 31 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The 24-hour forecast, starting at 31/0600 UTC, consists of: NE
gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13
feet, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W. Please read the HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the southernmost part of
Liberia, to 05N12W and 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to
03N30W 02N40W and 01N44W. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 01N to 04N between 33W
and 47W. isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 10N
southward from 60W eastward, mostly from 06N southward between 14W
and 32W.

One area of high level clouds covers the Atlantic Ocean from 17N
southward from 60W eastward, and those clouds are moving eastward.
Other high level clouds are within 210 nm on either side of the
line 20N16W 16N28W 10N43W, and those clouds are moving
northeastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level NW wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. The cold
front from 24 hours ago already has cleared the area completely.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery from 25N southward. Middle level anticyclonic wind flow
spans the Gulf of Mexico.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. A 1026
mb high pressure center is near 30N82W in NE Florida. A ridge
extends from NE Florida, to the central Gulf of Mexico, into the
SW corner of the area near 23N96W and 19N96W.

Broad surface low pressure has been developing in the area that
is from 23N southward, between the western part of the Yucatan
Peninsula and 94W.

Low level and middle level clouds cover the area that is to the
west and northwest of the line 30N83W 25N90W 21N90W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KMZG, KBBF, KBQX, and KHQI.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, with light rain
closer to the coast. MVFR in the middle Texas Gulf coastal plains.
drizzle in the Corpus Christi metropolitan area. light rain in
Palacios. moderate rain in Bay City. VFR from the Houston
metropolitan area northward to Huntsville, and in Beaumont/Port
Arthur. MVFR in Jasper. LOUISIANA: light rain has been reported
during the last few observations from Baton Rouge to areas that
are to the south of Lake Pontchartrain. from MISSISSIPPI to
ALABAMA to FLORIDA: VFR.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle level NE wind flow moves from Hispaniola, toward Central
America, from Honduras to Panama.

Upper level NW wind flow is moving from Cuba to Hispaniola, and
beyond the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier
air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across the
entire area.

Scattered to broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are
in the area that is from 15N to 20N between 70W and 80W, around
Hispaniola and the Windward Passage, and from 17N southward from
80W westward, including in interior sections of Central America
from Nicaragua southward.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
31/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.01 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level W-to-NW wind flow is moving on top of middle level
anticyclonic wind flow that is across Hispaniola. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across
the entire area. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible inland, and in the coastal waters, in areas of scattered
to broken low level clouds.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. drizzle.
for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling. few
cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceiling. La Romana:
VFR/no ceiling. few cumulonimbus clouds. Punta Cana: VFR/no
ceiling. Santiago: VFR/no ceiling. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling at
1600 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that a Colombia-to-Yucatan
Peninsula ridge will bring NW wind flow across the area during
the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that
an E-to-W oriented ridge will bring anticyclonic wind flow across
the area during the first 24 hours of the 48-hour forecast. Day
two will consist of N-to-NE wind flow. The GFS MODEL forecast for
700 mb shows that NE-to-E wind flow will move across Hispaniola,
during the next 48 hours, with an Atlantic Ocean anticyclonic
circulation center and a ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The deep layer trough, that was moving through the eastern U.S.A.
during the last 24 hours, now is in the western Atlantic Ocean,
passing through 34N60W to 30N64W and 28N68W. The trough supports
the cold front that moved through the Gulf of Mexico during the
last 24 hours. The front now passes through 32N60W to 25N64W, to
22N68W, to the SE Bahamas near 21N73W. The cold front is
dissipating from the SE Bahamas, across SE Cuba, to the NE corner
of the Yucatan Peninsula. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from 25N northward between 53W and 60W. Other
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 23N
northward from 52W westward. Scattered to broken low level clouds
and possible rainshowers are in the northwestern corner of the
Caribbean Sea, to the NW of the line that runs from the central
coast of Cuba, to the central coast of Honduras. Low-level to
middle level clouds, that are in the area of a surface-to-low
level trough, are within 75 nm on either side of 26N60W 23N65W,
to Hispaniola. Rainshowers are possible in this band/line of
clouds, and around Hispaniola.

An upper level trough passes through 32N46W to 25N45W to 15N47W.
High level clouds cover the Atlantic Ocean from 22N to 32N
between 35W and 45W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N23W to 23N31W 16N44W
15N53W and 15N60W. A surface trough extends from a 1014 mb low
pressure center that is near 34N23W, to 32N21W and 27N23W. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N
northward between 28W and 60W. A 1025 mb high pressure center is
near 31N45W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT

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