[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...A cold front is expected to
move into the northwest Gulf Thursday with strong northwest
winds and building seas over the west/central Gulf Thursday
night sliding south to the southwest Gulf early Friday. These
winds are expected to be below gale force by Friday night.
Please see the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO Headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends south of southwest Africa along 2N to
2N6W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 1N15W 3N26W to
2N44W, then resumes near 10N42W to 9N60W. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are from 5N to south of
the equator between 34W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge extends from the east Pacific region across
Mexico and the south CONUS covering the Gulf of Mexico. At the
surface is a surface ridge covering the Gulf and anchored by a
1022 mb high off the Florida coast near 29N83W. A weak surface
trough is in the southwest Gulf south of 22N along 94W
generating isolated showers within 60 nm either side of the
trough. The remainder of the Gulf is under fair weather this
evening. A cold front is expected to enter the Gulf on Thursday
followed by strong northwest winds and building seas. These
winds will increase to gale force Thursday night into early
Friday. See Special Features above. The front will quickly move
over the central and eastern Gulf through early Friday. High
pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward along 31N
through Saturday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge extends from South America across Colombia and
the Caribbean to east Cuba. Easterly trade winds are banking
scattered showers over the southwest Caribbean south of 15N west
of 90W to over Central America. Mostly fair weather with
possible isolated showers are across the remainder of the
Caribbean this evening. The west Atlantic surface ridge is
giving the Caribbean fresh to strong trade winds that will
continue through this evening. Winds will diminish later tonight
through Friday night as the surface ridge weakens. A cold front
is expected to move into the northwest Caribbean Friday night.
The front will then stall from the Windward Passage to the Gulf
of Honduras by Saturday night.

HISPANIOLA...

A weak surface trough extends from the southwest Atlantic to the
north coast of Hispaniola generating isolated showers over
portions of the Dominican Republic with fair weather across the
remainder of the island this evening. Possible isolated showers
will continue across the island through Friday increasing early
Saturday with the approach of the cold front that will stall
over the Windward Passage Saturday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A shortwave upper trough extends through 32N68W to the Turks and
Caicos supporting a surface trough that extends from 32N68W to
26N70W. This surface trough splits a surface ridge that covers
the Far west Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico and a larger
surface ridge that covers the central Atlantic anchored by a
1026 mb high near 31N49W. A second weaker surface trough is to
the south extending along 71W south of 23N across the Turks and
Caicos to the north coast of Hispaniola generating isolated
showers within 90 nm either side of the surface trough. An upper
trough over the east Atlantic is supporting a cold front that
extends through 32N25W to 22N34W then dissipates to 20N52W. An
east/west upper ridge extends across the tropics along 9N/10N
and is advecting tropical moisture with possible scattered
showers within a 200 nm swath from 10N46W along 20N33W to Africa
near 21N17W. The west Atlantic surface ridge will persist
through Thursday night. A cold front will move off the northeast
Florida coast Thursday evening reaching from Bermuda to central
Cuba Friday evening and from 32N54W along 24N65W to the Windward
Passage Saturday evening. Strong high pressure behind the front
will shift eastward along 31N through Saturday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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