[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area
that is called: IRVING. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow
the forecast that is valid until 28/0000 UTC, consists of: the
persistence of a cyclonic or severe gale in the western part of
IRVING.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal sections of Guinea near
10N15W, to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 05N30W
04N35W 05N38W. A surface trough is along 10N37W 07N40W 04N42W.
Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 01N
to 04N between 28W and 30W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. High level clouds
are to the south of 26N15W 24N30W 19N40W 16N60W, moving
northeastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The easternmost 20 percent of the area is covered with upper level
anticyclonic wind flow. This anticyclonic wind flow is part of the
larger-scale upper level ridge that is in the Caribbean Sea.

An ill-defined upper level trough passes through the NE corner of
the Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the area.

A separate area of upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving
from interior sections of Mexico into the central Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, to the upper
Texas Gulf coast/the middle Texas coastal waters, into the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible from 90W
eastward, from 22N southward from 90W westward, and from 25N
northward from 90W westward, in areas of scattered/broken low
level clouds.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KMZG and KXIH.

IFR: KBBF, KHHV, KVAF, and KEIR.

MVFR: KEMK, KHQI, KGHB, KATP, KGRY, KMDJ, KMIS, and KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR/IFR in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. LIFR from the
northern parts of the Houston metropolitan area, to Bay City and
Angleton/Lake Jackson to Falfurrias, and in Beaumont/Port Arthur.
MVFR/IFR from the northern parts of the Houston metropolitan area
to Huntsville. LOUISIANA: LIFR/IFR in the southern sections/
coastal plains. LIFR mostly in SE corner. MISSISSIPPI: IFR/MVFR
from Natchez-to-Hattiesburg southward and southeastward. LIFR/IFR
at the Stennis International Airport. ALABAMA: LIFR in Evergreen.
MVFR in Gulf Shores. FLORIDA: LIFR/IFR from Crestview-to-Destin
westward. MVFR at the Tampa Executive Airport and in Marathon
Key.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow, from South America and Central
America, toward the north and northeast, is related to an upper
level ridge that extends from northern Colombia beyond NW Cuba.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, to the north and northeast of the line that passes
through La Peninsula de la Guajira of northern Colombia, to the
eastern coast of Jamaica, beyond NW Cuba. Upper level NE wind flow
has been pushing the comparatively drier air into this part of
the Caribbean Sea.

Upper level southerly wind flow covers the area that is from 80W
westward, in the area of upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with
the Colombia-to-NW Cuba ridge. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong from 18N southward from 80W westward,
in the coastal waters and coastal plains of Central America. It is
possible that speed convergence may be a contributing factor to
the precipitation.

The monsoon trough is along 09N73W 07N78W beyond 10N85W in Costa
Rica. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong from 11N southward from 76W westward.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
27/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.19 in
Curacao, and 0.13 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, across the entire area. Convective precipitation:
Rainshowers are possible across Hispaniola, and in the coastal
waters and coastal plains, in areas of broken low level to middle
level clouds.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no
ceiling. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few
cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no
ceiling. Santiago: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1400 feet. Puerto
Plata: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. A NW-to-SE oriented
ridge is forecast to be along the line from the Yucatan Channel to
Colombia. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that NE wind
flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours, with a
Gulf of Mexico-to-central Caribbean Sea ridge. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow will move across the
area during the next 48 hours. It is possible that an inverted
trough may move across Hispaniola during each day of the two-day
forecast period.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is supporting a cold
front that 32N42W to 27N50W. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate within 90 nm on either side of 26N43W 30N38W beyond
32N37W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 23N northward
between 40W and 72W.

An upper level trough extends from 32N15W to 25N36W 18N48W 16N52W
14N60W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 28N
northward between Africa and 16W. Rainshowers are possible within
250 nm on either side of 27N30W 17N46W 14N60W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N24W to 28N30W and 23N43W.
Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward between 51W and 80W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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