[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 AM EST MON DEC 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal sections of Liberia near
06N10W, to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 04N37W,
from 03N40W to 02N51W at the coast of Brazil. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong,
from 10N southward between 08W and 40W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong from 10N southward between 40W and 60W. High level
clouds are to the south of 24N16W 23N34W 16N60W, moving
northeastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough is moving through the central U.S.A.
Upper level southerly wind flow covers the entire Gulf of Mexico.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, across the entire Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico
into the SW corner of the area, near 19N98W in the coastal plains
of Mexico.

Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible from 90W
eastward, in areas of scattered/broken low level clouds, in
southerly surface wind flow.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KDLP.

MVFR: KBBF, KXIH, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KGUL, KVQT, KGHB, KGRY, KEIR,
and KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR from south to north in the coastal plains, with
smaller areas of LIFR and IFR. light rain from Pearland to
Huntsville. LOUISIANA: MVFR in the southern sections/coastal
plains. LIFR mostly in SE corner, from Lake Pontchartrain to
the south and southeast. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR/IFR from Natchez
southward and southeastward. LIFR at the Stennis International
Airport. ALABAMA: MVFR in parts of the Mobile metropolitan area.
FLORIDA: MVFR in Crestview. IFR in Cross City.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow, from South America and Central
America, toward the north and northeast, is related to an upper
level ridge that extends from Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela,
beyond NW Cuba.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, to north and northeast of the line that passes through
12N60W 14N70W 19N80W 23N82W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow has
been pushing the comparatively drier air into this part of the
Caribbean Sea.

Upper level southerly wind flow covers the area that is from 80W
westward, in the area of upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with
the Venezuela-to-NW Cuba ridge. Convective precipitation:
scattered strong from 13N to 14N between 82W and 84W, in the
coastal waters and coastal plains of Nicaragua. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is elsewhere from 80W westward. It is possible
that speed convergence may be a contributing factor to the
precipitation.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W and southern Costa
Rica. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong from 11N southward from 76W westward.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
26/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.17 in
Curacao, and 0.06 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NE wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across
the entire area. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are
possible across Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and coastal
plains, in areas of broken low level to middle level clouds.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo
Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling. Santiago and Puerto
Plata: VFR/no ceiling.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that N-to-NE wind flow will move across
the area during the next 48 hours, with a Bahamas-to-Hispaniola
ridge. It is possible that some NW wind flow will move across
Hispaniola during the last 12 hours or so, of the 48-hour forecast
period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow
will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A NW-to-SE
oriented ridge will extend from the Atlantic Ocean/Florida/The
Bahamas beyond Hispaniola.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 36N50W, to 32N54W and 26N57W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 28N northward between 51W and 72W. The trough is
supporting a cold front that passes through Bermuda, to 31N69W and
30N74W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the
N and NW of the line that passes through 32N54W to 28N70W and
28N80W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N40W to 26N43W 20N48W
17N51W and 15N60W. A stationary trough passes through 32N52W to
31N54W. A surface trough continues from 31N54W to 27N58W and
24N64W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate within 240 nm
to the W and NW of the line that passes through 32N45W to 27N54W.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere to the W and NW of the line
27N54W 24N59W 21N70W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N18W. Cyclonic
wind flow covers the area that is from 23N northward from 30W
eastward. A surface trough is along 20W/21W from 27N to 32N. A
second surface trough is along 31W/32W from 20N to 25N. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 28N northward between Africa
and 24W. Rainshowers are possible from 20N to 26N between 30W and
40W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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