[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
633 PM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315` UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa and enters the east
Tropical Atlantic through Liberia near 5N9W to 3N16W. The ITCZ
continues from 3N16W to 6N30W to 6N40W to 4N51W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 3N-4.5N between
12N-18N. Similar convection is from 2N-6N between 29W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from the SE CONUS to the SW Gulf producing mainly
moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds. Mainly fresh winds are
blowing across the SE Gulf. The ridge will prevail through
Wednesday night. A trough will develop each night over the Yucatan
peninsula and move W-NW into the SW Gulf each night, then
dissipate over the SW Gulf by late morning. Shallow moisture
embedded in a southerly return flow is noted across the western
Gulf. The next cold front will move across the N-central and NE
Gulf waters on Thursday. Aloft, a ridge is over the State of
Florida with a southerly flow dominating the entire Gulf region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong
winds across much of the east and central Caribbean with strong
to near gale force winds near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to
locally strong winds are also noted across the Windward Passage
and the Yucatan Channel. These winds are the result of a tight
pressure gradient between a strong high pressure N of area and the
Colombian/Panamaniam low. Low-topped trade wind showers are
moving across the east and central Caribbean. Convection increases
across the regional waters of eastern Nicaragua and NE Honduras. A
diffluent pattern aloft supports this convective activity. The
high pressure N of area will continue to support fresh to strong
winds across much of the Caribbean Sea through Tuesday, then
diminish on Wednesday and Thursday as the ridge shifts east and
weakens.

HISPANIOLA...

Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will move across
the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers and
gusty winds. This scenario will continue through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Strong high pressure moving toward the NE of United States extends
a ridge across the western Atlantic west of 60W. Moderate to
strong winds are seen per scatterometer data along the southern
periphery of the ridge, particularly between the Bahamas and
Cuba. A frontal trough extends from 31N54W to 27N57W. Isolated
showers are near the trough axis. The remainder of the Atlantic is
under the influence of another ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high
pressure located near 40N16W. An upper-level low is spinning
between the Madeira and the Canary Islands generating some shower
activity. The next cold front is forecast to enter the western
Atlantic on Thursday night and reach from Bermuda to the central
Bahamas on Friday. In the upper-levels, a ridge/trough/ridge
pattern dominates the forecast region.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR

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