[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
618 PM EST SAT DEC 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
08N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ axis begins near 06N19W and continues
to 05N30W to 04N40W to along the coast of French Guiana at 05N52W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120
nm north of the axis between 32W and 45W, and also between 46W
and 52W. Similar activity is within 120 nm south of the axis
32W and 35W and within 60 nm north of the axis between 22W and
32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge axis extends from high pressure over the Atlc to the
southeastern United States and northern Gulf. This ridging
supports moderate to fresh southeasterly winds across the majority
of the Gulf with only some patches of isolated showers evident on
radar and satellite over the central gulf and southeastern gulf.
Patches of low clouds moving northward under a moderate southerly
flow around the western periphery of the ridge axis are located
over the western gulf. Isolated showers are possible from time
to time with these clouds. Little change is expected over the
next 24 to 48 hours, except for a diurnal trough developing over
the southwestern Gulf tonight supporting variable winds in the
vicinity of the trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination of high pressure over the western Atlc and lower
pressures over Colombia supports fresh to strong trades over the
south central Caribbean and Windward Passage, and moderate to
fresh trades elsewhere. The combination of low level speed
convergence and upper level diffluence continues to support
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms roughly from 13N to
15N west of 76W, including inland over Nicaragua. This persistent
precipitation is posing an ongoing flooding threat over Nicaragua
that will continue until this precipitation decreases. However,
latest forecast models indicate that this precipitation may
continue through at least Sunday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the windward
locations of the easterly trades will continue over the Island
through the remainder of the weekend. Isolated showers are
possible over the interior of Haiti. Generally fair weather
conditions are expected elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N45W to 28N54W, where it becomes
a weakening stationary front to near 24N66W. Fresh to strong
northeasterly winds are within 250 nm north of this boundary. A
weak inverted-surface trough is located along the Atlc coast of
northern and central Florida supporting scattered showers north
of 28N and west of 80W. High pressure of 1034 mb centered well
north of the area near 38N52W exetnds a ridge southwestward to
to a 1026 mb high center over south-central Georgia. This feature
remains in control of the weather regime over the western Atlc.
Farther east, an upper-level low near 28N24W with associated
broad upper trough supports a surface trough that extends from
near 29N24W to 22N25W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
within 180 nm east of the trough from 25N to 27N, whiles isolated
showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere within 240 nm east of the
trough and within 60 nm west of the trough from 25N to 27N. High
pressure centered east of the Azores dominates the remainder of
the eastern Atlantic weather, with a broad area of fresh to strong
trades covering the waters south of 32N east of 35W, except
lighter trades near the southern portion of the surface trough.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
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