[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221125
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

.None.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Africa at 10N14W to
07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 04N30W to 03N40W to
the coast of South America at 00N50W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-05N between 20W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 mb high is centered over south Georgia producing 10-15
anticyclonic winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Radar imagery shows
the last remnants of showers near Matanzas Cuba at 23N82W. The
remainder of the Gulf is void of precipitation. Temperatures
over the Florida Panhandle are presently in the 40's, while
temperatures over the Gulf of Mexico are in the 60's and 70's.
Expect a weak surface trough to form along the Texas coast this
morning with a chance of showers before moving north Friday
morning. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered
over northeastern Mexico near 24N98W with associated
anticyclonic flow dominating the Gulf of Mexico W of 85W. The
base of an sharp upper level shortwave trough extends from
30N76W to central Florida at 27N82W. This trough is digging SE
around the eastern edge of the anticyclone. Very strong deep
layered subsidence is sliding southward across Florida. The
upper level high over Mexico will gradually shift eastward
during the next couple of days, keeping the ridge over the Gulf
of Mexico.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt NE surface flow is over the central and western
Caribbean. Scattered showers are along the coasts of Costa Rica,
and W Panama. The eastern Caribbean has 15-20 kt tradewinds with
isolated moderate convection E of 70W. In the upper levels,
northern upper level flow is over the NW Caribbean with strong
subsidence. An upper level low is centered over Puerto Rico with
upper level moisture over the eastern Caribbean. Expect over the
next 24 hours for precipitation to spread to the central, and
SW Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently Hispaniola has fair weather, however, lightning
detection shows thunderstorms are just south of the island from
14N-18N between 67W-72W moving west. Expect showers and isolated
thunderstorms to advect over the southern portions of the island
over the next 24 hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 0900 UTC, a dissipating quasi-stationary front extends
over the western Atlantic from 31N70W to 28N78W. Scattered
showers are within 30 nm of the front. A surface trough is over
the central Atlantic from 29N59W to 23N61W. Scattered showers
are within 60 nm of the trough. Another surface trough is along
the coast of Western Sahara from 23N16W to 18N21W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm of this trough. A 1036 mb
high is centered over the Azores near 38N24W with ridge axis
extending WSW to 32N50W. Expect the front to fully dissipate
over the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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