[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201128
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 AM EST TUE DEC 20 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

..GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A stationary front extends from 31N76W through 28N82W to 24N90W to
the Bay of Campeche near 18N93W. Gale force NW to N winds are
occurring S of 22N and W of the front with seas of 10 to 17 FT.
The gale force winds are forecast to continue through tonight.
Please read the Atlantic high seas forecast, that is listed under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W
to 06N14W. The ITCZ begins near 06N14W and continues along 02N30W
to 04N40W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 04S to 10N between 25W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle to upper level ridging covers the entire Gulf of Mexico
with water vapor imagery depicting a belt of moisture over the
central basin and abundant moisture over the Bay of Campeche
associated with the tail of a stationary front. The stationary
front extends from 31N76W through 28N82W to 24N90W to the Bay of
Campeche near 18N93W where scattered showers are S of 20N. A
strong pressure gradient is between the front and broad high
pressure across the eastern U.S., extending SW along Mexico. This
continue to support gale-force winds in the SW Gulf and fresh to
near gale winds S of 26N W of the front. Please refer to the
SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about gale-force winds
and associated seas. Both Geocolor and IFR satellite imagery
suggest the presence of dense fog over the NE basin, which is
being confirmed by surface observations. This traduce to a
visibility of less than 3 miles, thus marine traffic in this
region must exercise caution. Winds and seas will gradually
subside over most of the Gulf today with strong to near-gale
force winds remaining along the coast of Mexico S of 20N.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge dominates the western Caribbean while an
upper trough is over the remainder basin. The upper trough along
with patches of shallow moisture moving across the E basin
support scattered to isolated showers over the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico. Water vapor imagery show strong dry air subsidence
across most of the basin, which is supporting overall stable
conditions and fair weather elsewhere. A tight pressure gradient
between high pressure across the Atlantic Ocean and climatological
lower pressure in Colombia supports fresh to near gale-force winds
from 10N to 18N between 70W and 83W with seas to 10 ft. Fresh to
strong E-NE winds are across the remainder basin, including the
Windward and Mona Passages. No significant changes expected
through Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Water vapor, CIRA LPW and SSMI TPW imagery continue to show very
dry air over the Island, which continue to favor fair weather.
However, patches of shallow moisture moving across the NE
Caribbean will reach the Dominican Republic later morning, thus
enhancing showers during the afternoon hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N76W through 28N82W to 24N90W to
the Bay of Campeche near 18N93W. Broken to overcast low and mid
level clouds with embedded showers are noted within 90 nm either
side of the front in the SW N Atlc waters. Fresh to strong
northerly flow is to the W-NW of the front. Otherwise, a surface
ridge dominates the remainder Atlc waters being anchored by a 1039 mb
high W of the Azores Islands. For winds and seas associated with
both the front and the strong ridge please read the Atlantic high
seas forecast listed under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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