[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161109
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
609 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
08N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N17W to 01N27W to 02N40W to 02N50W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 01N-04N between 01W-07W...and from the Equator
to 08N between 13W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad upper level troughing is noted over the western North Atlc
and SW North Atlc regions supporting a cold front analyzed across
the Florida Straits from 24N80W to 24N85W where it becomes
stationary to 23N94W and into a 1018 mb low centered across NE
Mexico near 25N98W. The front remains convection-free...however a
few shallow isolated showers are possible within 60 nm either side
of the stationary front. As the front continues to weaken this
morning...a portion of the boundary across the western waters is
expected to begin moving northward...dissipate by this afternoon
and become embedded within a developing area of low pressure
across the Intermountain West and central Plains tonight.
Otherwise...surface ridging influences much of the remainder of
the basin anchored by a strong 1032 mb high centered across the
Mid-Atlc region. The ridging will continue sliding eastward into
Saturday with moderate to occasional fresh southerly return flow
establishing itself across the western waters. The return flow
will spread eastward Saturday into Saturday night with the next
significant cold front forecast to emerge off the Texas and
Louisiana coast late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
Near gale to gale force northerly winds are possible across
portions of the western Gulf with the passage of this front Sunday
through Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
The Caribbean basin remains relatively tranquil overall this
morning with only a few isolated showers and tstms occurring
across the western Caribbean S of 17N between 80W-85W.
Otherwise...shallow moisture and cloudiness within moderate to
fresh trades prevails. Slightly stronger trades are forecast
within close proximity to the coast of Colombia pulsing higher in
the late overnight and early morning hours through Saturday. By
Saturday...strong high pressure is expected to be anchored to the
N across the SW North Atlc region increasing trades into fresh to
strong breeze levels the remainder of the weekend into early next
week.

...HISPANIOLA...
Overall mostly dry and stable conditions prevail aloft and at the
surface this morning. Little change in the synoptic pattern is
expected until Friday night when strong high pressure will anchor
across the SW North Atlc providing a strengthened pressure
gradient and a resulting increase in E-NE winds into fresh to
strong breeze levels through the upcoming weekend into early next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor
imagery over much of the SW North Atlc this morning supporting a
cold front analyzed into the discussion area near 32N59W. The
front extends SW to the central Bahamas and across the Florida
Straits into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Most active convection is
occurring E of the front N of 28N between 55W-63W. Otherwise...a
weak surface ridge axis extends from the central Atlc near 30N40W
W-SW to N of Hispaniola near 21N70W. The front is expected to
continue on a gradual weakening trend between 47W-55W through
Friday night as strong high pressure builds in across the region
W of the front. The resulting strong pressure gradient will
generate fresh to strong NE to E winds across much of the southern
periphery of the ridging as the ridge moves off the mid-Atlc
coast. Farther east...the central and eastern Atlc remain under
the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1035 mb high
centered in the vicinity of the Azores near 37N24W. A weak cold
front is noted on the eastern periphery of this ridge extending
across the Iberian peninsula to 32N10W to 31N20W to 33N27W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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