[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1235 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to
03N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
03N15W to 03N19W to 04N30W to 01N49W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 02N-05N between 03W-15W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 03N-13N between 21W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad upper level troughing is noted over the eastern CONUS and
portions of the eastern US seaboard supporting a slow moving cold
front analyzed from northern Florida near 30N83W SW to 27N90W to
27N93W then to the NE Mexico coast near 24N98W. Only a few
isolated showers are occurring within 60 nm either side of the
front. Otherwise...light to gentle anticyclonic winds are
occurring generally S of the front as a 1019 mb high centered near
24N87W continues to slowly weaken and dissipate. To the N of the
front...moderate to fresh N-NE winds prevail as strong high
pressure anchored across the Central Plains continues to push
influence south and eastward into the Mississippi and Ohio River
valleys on Thursday. The front is forecast to shift E of the basin
and into the SW North Atlc region by Friday as southerly return
flow re-establishes itself across portions of the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
The Caribbean basin remains relatively tranquil overall this
evening with only a few isolated showers and tstms occurring
across the SW Caribbean S of 12N between 80W-84W in close
proximity to the Monsoon Trough axis analyzed across Panama to
northern Colombia near 10N75W. Otherwise...shallow moisture and
cloudiness within moderate to fresh trades prevail and are
expected to persist through Friday night. Slightly strong trades
are forecast within close proximity to the coast of Colombia
pulsing higher in the late overnight and early morning hours
through Saturday. By Saturday...strong high pressure is expected
to be anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc region increasing
trades into fresh to strong breeze levels the remainder of the
weekend into early next week.

...HISPANIOLA...
A few isolated showers are noted across the region this
evening...however overall mostly dry and stable conditions
prevail. Little change in the synoptic pattern is expected until
Friday night when strong high pressure will anchor across the SW
North Atlc providing a strengthened pressure gradient and a
resulting increase in E-NE winds into fresh to strong breeze
levels through the upcoming weekend into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor
imagery over much of the SW North Atlc this evening supporting a
cold front analyzed into the discussion area near 32N70W. The
front extends W-SW to north Florida near Jacksonville and into the
Gulf of Mexico. Most active convection is occurring N of 29N
between 60W-67W...and within 30 nm either side of the front
between 67W-77W. Otherwise...a weak surface ridge axis extends
from the central Atlc near 30N43W W-SW to the Bahamas. The front
is expected to skirt the waters along of 30N between 55W-75W
through Friday as strong high pressure builds in across the region
W of the front. The resulting strong pressure gradient will induce
fresh to strong NE to E winds across much of the southern
periphery of the ridging. Farther east...the central and eastern
Atlc remain under the influence of a strong surface ridge anchored
by a 1031 mb high centered near 32N27W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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