[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
606 AM EST WED DEC 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N08W to
03N12W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
03N12W to 02N16W to 05N24W to 02N44W. A surface trough is
analyzed at the western extent of the ITCZ along 47W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 01N-11N between 13W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad troughing aloft is noted over much of the eastern CONUS and
Gulf basin this morning with water vapor imagery indicating a
mid-level shortwave trough embedded within the overall flow in
the vicinity of 32N82W. The shortwave supports a 1014 mb low
centered across central Georgia with the associated cold front
extending W-SW to Lake Pontchartrain then to the Texas coast near
Corpus Christi. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are
occurring from the Florida Big Bend region W-SW to near 28N90W.
Otherwise...the remainder of the basin remains under the
influence of surface ridging anchored by a 1020 mb high centered
near 25N86W. The ridge axis extends from the southern Florida
peninsula through the high center to the east-central coast of
Mexico and the SW Gulf waters. Mostly clear skies prevail
elsewhere outside of the frontal boundary with light to gentle
anticyclonic winds. By Wednesday night the cold front will begin
pushing E-SE through early Friday. Brief moderate to fresh N-NE
winds are expected across the NW Gulf waters Thursday morning in
wake of the front with the front shifting E of the basin entirely
by early Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A broad upper level anticyclonic circulation is anchored over the
eastern Caribbean near 14N63W with water vapor imagery indicating
mostly dry air E of 77W and increased cloudiness and moisture W of
77W. As tropical moisture advects generally northward within the
western periphery of the upper level ridging over the western
Caribbean...widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are
occurring mostly S of 20N between 76W-89W...including portions of
Central America and the NW Caribbean waters. The close proximity
to the Monsoon Trough axis along 10N is also providing further
enhancement to stronger convection this morning S of 12N between
78W-85W. Farther east...mostly clear skies prevail with only a
few quick-moving low-topped isolated showers occurring in the
vicinity of the Windward islands and adjacent coastal waters of
Hispaniola. Trades are expected to persist in the moderate to
fresh range through the remainder of the week...increasing into
fresh to strong levels Saturday as strong high pressure anchors to
the north across the SW North Atlc waters.

...HISPANIOLA...
Passing isolated showers are noted across the adjacent coastal
waters associated with very shallow moisture. Moderate to fresh
trade winds are also occurring across the island and the adjacent
coastal waters. These conditions are expected through Saturday when
surface high pressure will build in across the region N of the
island and increase winds to fresh to strong breeze levels.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over much of the SW North
Atlc region this morning with mid-level shortwave energy noted on
water vapor imagery progressing eastward over the SE CONUS. This
troughing supports a weak area of low pressure focused on a 1010
mb low centered off the coast of North Carolina near 36N72W with
the associated cold front extending SW to the South Carolina
border and inland across central Georgia. Surface ridging
prevails to the south with axis extending from the central Atlc
near 30N50W to the NW Bahamas and southern Florida peninsula.
Only a few isolated showers and tstms are noted N of 30N between
64W-70W and N of 30N W of 75W on satellite imagery. Farther
east...a surface ridge influences much of the remainder of the
central and eastern Atlc anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near
34N26W. A weakening cold front extends into the discussion area
near 32N16W SW to 27N34W. Isolated showers are possible within 90
nm either side of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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