[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1219 AM EST WED DEC 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to
05N12W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N12W to 06N18W to 03N40W. A surface trough is analyzed at the
western extent of the ITCZ along 45W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 02N-10N between 12W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad troughing aloft is noted over much of the eastern CONUS and
Gulf basin this evening with water vapor imagery indicating a mid-
level shortwave trough embedded within the overall flow in the
vicinity of 31N87W. The shortwave supports a 1013 mb low centered
across central Alabama with the associated cold front extending
W-SW to near Galveston Texas. Pre-frontal surface troughing is
also noted to the SE of the front from near Mobile Bay meandering
SW to offshore of Corpus Christi Texas. Widely scattered showers
and isolated tstms are occurring within 45 nm either side of the
pre-frontal boundary remaining generally N of 28N. Otherwise...
the remainder of the basin remains under the influence of surface
ridging with axis extending from the Florida peninsula W-SW to the
east-central coast of Mexico and the SW Gulf waters. Mostly clear
skies prevail...however isolated shower and tstm activity is
occurring across the eastern Bay of Campeche waters S of 21N E of
92W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are expected overnight
into early Wednesday as the ridging continues to erode...however
by Wednesday night the cold front along the coast will begin
pushing E-SE through early Friday. Brief moderate to fresh N-NE
winds are expected across the NW Gulf waters Thursday morning in
wake of the front with the front shifting E of the basin entirely
by early Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A broad upper level anticyclonic circulation is anchored over the
eastern Caribbean near 15N64W with water vapor imagery indicating
mostly dry air E of 77W and increased cloudiness and moisture W of
77W. As tropical moisture advects generally northward within the
western periphery of the upper level ridging over the western
Caribbean...widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are
occurring mostly S of 21N between 81W-89W...including portions of
Central America and the NW Caribbean waters. Farther east...mostly
clear skies prevail with only a few quick-moving low-topped
isolated showers occurring in the vicinity of the Windward islands
and adjacent coastal waters of Hispaniola. Trades are expected to
persist in the moderate to fresh range through the remainder of
the week...increasing into fresh to strong levels Saturday as
strong high pressure anchors to the north across the SW North Atlc
waters.

...HISPANIOLA...
Passing isolated showers are noted across the adjacent coastal
waters associated with very shallow moisture. Moderate to fresh
trade winds are also occurring across the island and the adjacent
coastal waters. These conditions are expected through Saturday when
surface high pressure will build north of the island and increase
winds to fresh to strong breeze levels.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over much of the SW North
Atlc region this evening with mid-level shortwave energy noted on
water vapor imagery progressing eastward over the SE CONUS. This
troughing supports a weak area of low pressure focused on a 1013
mb low centered off the coast of the Carolinas near 34N75W with
the associated cold front extending W across southern South
Carolina and central Georgia. Surface ridging prevails to the
south with axis extending from the central Atlc near 30N50W to the
NW Bahamas and central Florida peninsula. Only a few isolated
showers and tstms are noted N of 29N between 56W-72W on satellite
imagery. Farther east...a surface ridge influences much of the
remainder of the central and eastern Atlc anchored by a 1029 mb
high centered near 34N31W. A weakening cold front extends into the
discussion area near 32N18W SW to 26N36W and becomes diffuse to
25N50W. Isolated showers are possible within 90 nm either side of
the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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