[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112222
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
522 PM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the African Continent entering the
Atlantic Ocean through Liberia near 07N11W to 05N18W. The ITCZ
axis begins from 05N18W and extends through 04N30W to 06N40W. A
surface trough is embedded within the ITCZ extending from 10N42W
to 03N43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of
02N to the coast of Africa between 05W and 09W. Similar convection
is within 75 nm S of axis between 29W and 31W, and from 01N to 03N
between 34W and 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure located NE of the region extends a ridge across the
SE CONUS into the Gulf and much of the Gulf waters into central
Mexico, while the remnants of a frontal boundary remains across
the SE Gulf stretching from across the Straits of Florida to
23N88W to 21N93W. The most recent scatterometer pass showed the
presence of a surface trough across the SW Gulf, extending from
near Tampico Mexico to the western Bay of Campeche near 19N95W.
Under this weather pattern, fresh to locally strong southerly flow
has developed over the NW Gulf while fresh to locally strong
easterly winds are noted over the eastern Gulf north of the
frontal boundary to about 26N. Multilayered clouds with embedded
showers are over the SW Gulf. The high located NE of area will
continue to slide eastward with a 1020 mb high pressure developing
over the NE Gulf on Monday. This system will persist through
Wednesday. The next cold front is forecast to reach the N and NE
Gulf wed night followed by another strong high pressure system.
This will result in increasing N-NE winds mainly across the N
waters on Thursday. Aloft, a trough is over the NW Gulf.
Southwesterly flow ahead of the trough dominates the remainder of
the Gulf.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

The stationary front described above in the Gulf of Mexico section
extends across the Yucatan Channel enhancing winds/seas across the
far west Caribbean. Over the central portion of the basin, a
1009 mb surface low es centered near 11N81W, with surface trough
extending to the east of it from 17N76W to 11N78W. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed near these
features affecting the area south of 16N between 77W-86W. Locally
heavy rain is currently occurring over portions of Nicaragua and
northern Costa Rica. This activity could generate flash flooding
and mudslides. Fair weather prevails across the remainder of the
basin. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across
the basin except fresh to strong winds south of 16N between 72W-
80W. Expect through the next 24 hours for the stationary front to
begin weakening and then dissipate. The surface low in the south-
central Caribbean will continue moving west over Central America
then entering the eastern Pacific Ocean.

...HISPANIOLA...

An inverted trough is currently north of the island supporting
cloudiness and isolated showers affecting the northern adjacent
waters. This activity will continue through the next 24 hours as
the trough moves west.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the western and central Atlantic
from 24N80W to 25N63W to 31N46W. Isolated showers are observed
within 80 nm to the north of the front affecting portions of South
Florida and the Bahamas. A surface trough was analyzed north of
Hispaniola extending from 23N69W to 20N70W. Scattered showers are
observed along this trough. A surface ridge extends across the
remainder of the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near
29N36W and a 1026 mb high near 33N25W. Expect for the stationary
front to start weakening during the next 24 hours. A surface ridge
will build in the western Atlantic. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net