[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is along 26.5N81W 26N88W 26N94W 21N95W 18N96W.
Expect gale-force NW-to-N winds S OF 26N W of the cold front...
except from 35 TO 45 KT from 22N TO 26N W OF 96W. SEAS 10 TO 18
FT...except 15 TO 20 KT W OF 96W. N OF FRONT W OF 93W NE WINDS
25 TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for
more details.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 04N26W
and 05N32W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 03N
to 06N between 30W and 43W. widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 03N to 08N between 14W and 44W. isolated
moderate elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front
passes through 32N72W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 26N80W along the
Florida coast, to the central Gulf of Mexico, to 24N94W, and
then to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W. A stationary front
continues from 19N96W, northwestward across Mexico. A cold front
extends from a 1014 mb Atlantic Ocean low pressure center that
is near 32N39W, to 27N45W and 27N51W. A dissipating stationary
front continues from 27N51W to 28N67W, across the NW Bahamas,
into the Straits of Florida. The stationary front becomes more
active from the Straits of Florida into the south central Gulf
of Mexico, to 22N93W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong to the south of the line from Lake
Okeechobee in southern Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico,
to the Mexico coast along 25N.

Surface high pressure passes through parts of west Texas and
south central Texas, into the coastal plains of Mexico, into the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are
present in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the Eastern Pacific Ocean
side of southern Mexico. Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern
Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20
KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM
27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KBBF, KBQX, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KGUL, KHQI,
KVQT, KGRY, KATP, KVOA, and KVKY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in the deep south of Texas. from LOUISIANA to
ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: light rain in the Tampa-St. Petersburg
metropolitan area, to Sarasota, Punta Gorda, and Ft.Myers. MVFR
at the NAS in Key West, and at the Key West International
Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the area
that is from 10N to 20N between 66W and 74W. A surface trough is
along 68W/69W from 10N in Venezuela to 18N off the SE coast of
Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong from 11N to 17N between
67W and 71W. isolated moderate elsewhere from 10N to 18N between
60W and 73W.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and
parts of Central America from 18N southward between 73W and 89W.

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1020 mb high
pressure center, that is near 25N58W, across the Bahamas to Cuba.

The monsoon trough is along 11N74W 10N79W, beyond western
Panama, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
11N southward between 76W and 81W. isolated moderate
elsewhere from 14N southward from 75W westward.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
09/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 1.86 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level E-to-SE wind flow is moving across the island. Broad
upper level cyclonic wind flow surrounds the island.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, across the area. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers
are possible across Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and
coastal plains, in areas of broken low level to middle level
clouds.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no
ceiling. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling.
Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling.
Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceiling.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that an anticyclonic
circulation center will be in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea
and a cyclonic circulation center will be about 120 nm to the
south of Hispaniola. N wind flow will move across Hispaniola
during the first half to two-thirds of day one, followed by
cyclonic wind flow with either the cyclonic circulation center
or an open trough. Day two will consist of the trough moving
eastward, bringing NW wind flow across Hispaniola. The NW
Caribbean Sea anticyclonic circulation center will move to a
position that is about 90 nm to the south of Haiti, by the end
of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that an E-to-
W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge will range from 120 nm to 240 nm
to the north of Hispaniola during the next two days. Expect SE
wind flow across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an E-to-W oriented Atlantic
Ocean ridge will range from 120 nm to 320 nm to the north of
Hispaniola during the next two days. Expect mostly SE wind flow,
during the next two days, along with a possible inverted
troughs about halfway through the 48-hour time period.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is along 23W from 26N beyond 32N. The
trough supports a cold front that passes through 32N24W to
27N30W and 25N36W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible from 20N northward from 30W eastward.

A surface ridge is along 27N22W, to 22N38W, to the 1020 mb high
pressure center that is near 25N58W, and then across the
Bahamas, to Cuba.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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