[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The 12-hour forecast consists of a cold front from 29N90W to
26.5N97.5W. Expect N-to-NE winds 20 to 30 knots with frequent
gusts to gale-force, and sea heights less than 8 feet, to the NW
of the cold front. The 18-hour forecast consists of a cold front
from 30N85W TO 26N96W TO 21N97.5W. Expect N-to-NE gale-force
winds and sea heights reaching 12 feet to the NW of the cold
front and to the N of 25N to the W of 90W. Please read the HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are being forecast for the
area that is called IRVING. This is for the forecast that is
valid until 09/0000 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal border sections of Sierra
Leone and Liberia, to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to
02N33W and 04N42W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong within 180 nm on either side of 11N58W
06N47W 04N40W 03N09W 02N01W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO,
INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front
passes through 32N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 29N70W and
26N77W near the NW Bahamas. The front becomes stationary from
the NW Bahamas, across the southern part of Florida, into the
south central Gulf of Mexico, and 22N95W. A second stationary
front passes through the Florida Big Bend, to the north central
Gulf of Mexico, beyond the deep south of Texas, and curving
northwestward into northern Mexico. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 26N from 90W eastward. rainshowers are
possible from 23N northward from 90W westward, and from 28N
northward from 90W eastward.

The 30-hour forecast for the Eastern Pacific Ocean side of
Mexico, for the Gulf of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, will
consist of a GALE warning. Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern
Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20
KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM
27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KXIH.

MVFR: KBQX, KHHV, KVBS, KVQT, KIKT, and KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Harlingen, Weslaco, Edinburg, and McAllen. IFR in
Hebbronville and Falfurrias. MVFR in Alice, at the NAS in
Kingsville, Robstown. IFR in the Corpus Christi metropolitan
area. MVFR in Victoria. IFR in Port Lavaca and Palacios. MVFR in
Bay City and in Angleton/Lake Jackson. light rain and IFR in
Sugar Land, and at the Houston Hobby Airport. IFR and mist in
Pearland. MVFR and mist at the Ellington Field. IFR in
Galveston. MVFR and mist at the Intercontinental Airport.
MVFR in Tomball. light rain in Conroe. MVFR in Huntsville and in
Beaumont/Port Arthur. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Lake Charles,
Lafayette, Patterson, Galliano, and around Lake Pontchartrain.
MISSISSIPPI: MVFR from Natchez and Hattiesburg southward.
ALABAMA: near MVFR, ceilings just higher than 3000 feet, from
Birmingham to Gulf Shores. FLORIDA: LIFR at the Tampa Executive
Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough was along 20N60W to 13N70W. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 18N southward between
70W and Central America. Upper level NE wind flow covers the
area from Honduras northward from 80W westward. Upper level SW
wind flow is in the extreme NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough is along 60W/61W from 17N southward. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from Venezuela and Trinidad
to 17N between 58W and 65W.

Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, in areas of broken low
level clouds, across much of the area.

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1020 mb high
pressure center, that is near 25N61W, across the Bahamas to
Cuba.

The monsoon trough is along 10N from northern Colombia beyond
beyond NW Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 10N to 12N
between 78W and 82W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 13N southward from 78W westward.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
08/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.06 in
Curacao.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NE wind flow is moving across the island.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, across the area. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers
are possible across Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and
coastal plains, in areas of broken low level to middle level
clouds.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no
ceiling. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling.
Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling.
Santiago: MVFR. ceiling at 1600 feet. Puerto Plata: VFR/no
ceiling.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that an anticyclonic
circulation center will be in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea
and a cyclonic circulation center will be in the SE corner of
the Caribbean Sea, moving toward Hispaniola, and reaching
Hispaniola at the end of day one/the beginning of day two.
The cyclonic circulation center weakens eventually, giving SW
wind flow to Hispaniola. The ridge that was in the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea moves eastward, to the south of Jamaica. The
GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that an E-to-W oriented
Atlantic Ocean ridge will be just to the north of Hispaniola
during the next two days. The wind flow across Hispaniola will
be from the E-to-NE during day one, and SE wind flow during day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an E-to-W
oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge will be just to the north of
Hispaniola during the next two days. Expect SE wind flow, during
the next two days, along with some possible inverted troughs.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper level trough that was supporting a cold front during
the last few days has moved northward, and out of the area that
is covered by this summary. A cold front passes through 32N32W
to 29N40W 28N44W and 30N54W. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 22N northward from 50W eastward.

A surface ridge passes through 32N16W, to just to the NW of the
Canary Islands to 26N22W, to 24N42W 25N61W, across the Bahamas,
to Cuba.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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