[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are being forecast for the
area that is called IRVING. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that
follow the forecast that is valid until 07/0000 UTC, consists
of: the threat of SW near gale or gale in IRVING.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W, to
04N26W, 06N37W and 08N45W. Convective precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong from 03N to 08N between 30W and 39W. widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 02N to 07N between
18W and 30W. A surface trough is along 48W/49W from 07N to 16N.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
within 60 nm on either side of 02N45W 07N46W 13N47W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO,
INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer cyclonic circulation center is moving NE through NE
Texas, associated with a trough. The trough and cyclonic
circulation center are supporting a Gulf of Mexico frontal
boundary. A stationary front extends from SE Georgia, through
the Florida Panhandle, to a SW Louisiana coastal 1004 mb low
pressure center. A cold front extends from the 1004 mb low
pressure center, to 28N91W, 23N93W, and 19N95W in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: numerous strong
in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. isolated moderate from
25N northward from 90W eastward. rainshowers are possible in the
Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward.

Coastal Waters Forecast: TEXAS: small craft exercise caution in
parts of the lower Texas coastal waters, and in parts of the
middle Texas coastal waters. from LOUISIANA to FLORIDA: small
craft advisories have been issued for parts of the coastal
waters. small craft should exercise caution elsewhere. Please
consult the individual forecasts from each NWS office with
marine forecasting responsibilities for your area of concern.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KXIH, KVBS, KEMK, KHQI, KEHC, KVQT, KGHB, KATP, KSPR,
KIKT, KVOA, KVKY, and KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: light rain in Beaumont/Port Arthur. MVFR in Galveston.
MVFR in Jasper. MVFR from Sugar Land to the southern part of
the Houston metropolitan area, and at the Houston
Intercontinental Airport. IFR in Tomball and Conroe. LIFR in
Huntsville. LOUISIANA: IFR in the Lake Charles metropolitan area.
LIFR in Lafayette and New Iberia and Baton Rouge. IFR in
Patterson. rainshowers and thunder and MVFR in Galliano.
light rain and IFR in Boothville. LIFR in Hammond. light rain in
Slidell. light rain and MVFR at other locations that are on the
southern side of Lake Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR and rain
and thunder from Biloxi to the Stennis International Airport.
LIFR in the Hattiesburg metropolitan area. IFR in McComb. LIFR
in Natchez. ALABAMA: IFR in the Mobile metropolitan area. LIFR
in Gulf Shores. LIFR in Evergreen. light rain and LIFR at Fort
Rucker. heavy rain and LIFR in Dothan. FLORIDA: rain has ended
for the moment at the NAS in Pensacola. LIFR at the Pensacola
International Airport. LIFR in Milton and Crestview. light rain
in Mary Esther, and light rain and LIFR in Valparaiso. heavy
rain in Destin, at the NW Panama City Airport, and in Marianna.
IFR in Apalachicola. light rain in Tallahassee. moderate rain
and IFR in Perry. light rain in Cross City. MVFR at the NAS in
Key West.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea
from 70W westward. Upper level NE to E wind flow covers the
area between 60W and 70W.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level clouds,
from 15N to 20N between 60W and 82W, and from 13N to 15N between
80W and 82W.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the area, from 10N78W to
11N82W, to 13N83W along the coast of Nicaragua. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 10N southward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NE wind flow is moving across the island. Broad upper
level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea from 70W
westward, and the Atlantic Ocean from 65W westward.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, across the area. A surface trough continues from 20N60W
to 20N65W, and curving into the Mona Passage. Convective
precipitation: Rainshowers are possible across Hispaniola, and
in the coastal waters and coastal plains, in areas of broken low
level to middle level clouds. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere
in the Caribbean Sea from 15N to 20N between 60W and 82W, and
from 13N to 15N between 80W and 82W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR at
06/0000 UTC. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona at 06/0000
UTC: VFR/no ceiling. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo:
MVFR. ceiling at 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana:
light rain. MVFR. ceiling at 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling. light rain has ended for the moment.
Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceiling.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that N wind flow will
move across Hispaniola during day one. An anticyclonic
circulation center will be about 150 nm to the NNE of the
eastern tip of Honduras. The anticyclonic circulation center
will move closer to western Jamaica during day one. The wind
flow will become NE during day two. The anticyclonic circulation
center will move toward Honduras. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500
MB shows that E-to-W oriented ridge will be in the Atlantic
Ocean, about 150 nm to the north of Hispaniola during day one.
Expect NE wind flow during day one. The ridge will stay to the
north of Hispaniola during day two. Expect more NE wind flow
during day two, with an inverted trough spanning the area during
the middle of the day. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows
that SE and E wind flow will move across the area during day
one, with an east-to-west oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. Day two
will consist of Easterly wind flow with the same ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N35W to 26N36W. The
trough is supporting a cold front that passes through 32N34W to
25N40W and 20N54W. The cold front is dissipating from 20N54W to
20N60W. A surface trough continues from 20N60W to 20N65W, and
curving into the Mona Passage. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong within 180 nm on either
side of the line that passes through 32N26W to 28N30W to 20N37W.
Rainshowers are possible in the Caribbean Sea from 15N to 20N
between 60W and 82W, and from 13N to 15N between 80W and 82W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the
NW of the cold front/surface trough. It is moving around a 1021
mb high pressure center that is near 30N66W.

A surface ridge is to the east of the cold front/surface trough.
The ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that is
near 34N14W, across the Canary Islands, to 24N23W and 14N34W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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