[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 PM EST MON DEC 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning...A cold front extends from 30N37W to
24N50W to 22N57W where it starts to dissipate to the Great Bahama
Bank near 22N74W. Latest scatterometer data indicate that gale
force winds diminished near 1200 UTC. Please see the High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 06N10W to 05N12W where it transitions to the ITCZ,
which continues to 05N30W to 05N40W to 08N45W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm either side of the monsoon trough and
the ITCZ, except from 3N to 10N between 34W and 45W where
convection is moderate to isolated strong with tstms. West of the
ITCZ, a surface trough extends from 16N47W to 08N48W with isolated
to scattered showers within 120 nm either side of its axis.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Southwesterly flow associated with a broad middle to upper ridge
anchored over the Caribbean continue to cover the Gulf waters
aloft. Low level moisture advected from the Caribbean converges
along a stationary front that extends from the Florida Panhandle
near 30N86W to 28N90W to a 1004 mb low near 27N94W and along a
cold front that extends SW from the low to the Bay of Campeche
near 20N96W. Upper level diffluence in the north-central Gulf
support scattered heavy showers and tstms N of 26N between 86W and
94W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are also within 90 nm
either side of the cold front. Fog and hazy conditions are being
reported in the NE basin N of 27N coinciding to GOES medium to
high IFR probabilities. This traduces to visibilities less than 3
miles, but greater than 1 mile. Commercial and recreational
vessels in this zone must exercise caution. Fresh to strong NW
winds are W of the front and low with seas to 8 ft. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh SE flow dominate across the remainder basin
along with fair weather conditions supported by strong dry air
subsidence. The cold front will move across the Gulf today and
Tuesday with fresh to strong winds behind it. These winds will
subside Tuesday. A stronger cold front will move into the
northwest Gulf Wednesday night followed by strong to gale force
winds through the end of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad middle level anticyclone is anchored over E Cuba and
provide a diffluent wind environment in the SW Caribbean where a
surface trough extends from 15N83W to 11N80W to a 1010 mb low off
the coast of Colombia near 10N76W. Moderate low level moisture in
this region of the basin support scattered showers within 60 nm
either side of the trough axis. In the SW N Atlantic, a pre-
frontal surface trough extends from 22N52W to 19N61W to the Mona
Passage with isolated showers within 90 nm either side of its axis
extending to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Upper level
ridging across the remainder Caribbean along with strong dry air
subsidence support stable and fair weather conditions elsewhere. Surface
ridge over the west Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong
trade winds near the coast of Colombia and northwest Venezuela
through Thursday morning. Similar winds are expected in the
western Caribbean this evening and tonight.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough in the SW Atlantic extends from 22N52W to 19N61W
to the Mona Passage, which along with low level moisture in the
region support isolated showers over Dominican Republic and
adjacent waters. Showers and tstms will continue through Tuesday
as the tail of a cold front moves over the northern Island.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface high pressure anchored by a 1021 mb high near 30N71W
covers the SW N Atlc waters and provide fair and stable
conditions. Ahead of the ridge, a cold front extends from 30N37W
to 24N50W to 22N57W where it starts to dissipate to the southern
Bahamas near 21N73W. Scattered heavy showers are ahead of the
front to 30W N of 21N. A pre-frontal surface trough extends from
22N52W to 19N61W to the Mona Passage with isolated showers within
90 nm either side of its axis extending to Puerto Rico and the
Dominican Republic. A surface ridge covers the remainder NE Atlc
waters being anchored by a 1021 mb high near 28N19W. The central
Atlantic cold front will reach from 32N32W along 23N46W to 21N71W
by tonight and into the east Atlantic Tuesday night. A new cold
front will move into the west Atlantic Tuesday night reaching from
Bermuda to south Florida Wednesday night.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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