[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning...The cold front currently in the SW N Atlantic
will extend from 31N50W to 24N65W to 23N78W by 04/0600 UTC with SW gale
force winds north of 30N east of the front to 42W. These winds
will shift east with the front through 05/0600 UTC. Please see the
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 6N11W to 5N15W to 6N20W. The ITCZ begins near 6N20W
and continues along 5N34W 7N51W. West of the ITCZ, a surface
trough extends from 14N50W to 5N56W. Diffluent flow to the east
of an upper level trough support scattered to isolated moderate
convection from 2N to 20N between 30W and 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad middle to upper ridge continue to provide SW flow aloft
across the Gulf waters. CIRA LPW and TPW imagery show moisture
inflow from the Caribbean along the N-NW Gulf, which is inducing a warm
front that extends from a 1009 mb low near 26N98W to 28N95W to
30N87W. Isolated showers and foggy conditions are within 120 nm
either side of the front. Fresh to strong E-SE winds are N of 26N
E of 96W. Surface ridging and moderate to fresh E-SE winds
dominate the remainder basin along with fair weather. Otherwise,
the tail of a dissipating stationary front extends across the
Straits of Florida to 23N87W with possible isolated passing
showers. The next front will move into the west Gulf early next
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle to upper level ridging dominate across the basin with
strong dry air subsidence, which is sustaining stable and fair
weather conditions almost basin-wide. In the SW Caribbean, a 1010
mb low shows in scatterometer data with an associated surface
trough extending from 17N79W SE to the low center to 8N77W.
Scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are within 90 nm either
side of the trough. In the SW Atlantic, a surface trough extends
from 25N62W to 22N65W to the Mona Passage, which along with
abundant low level moisture in the region may support isolated
passing showers over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico this evening. A surface
ridge over the west Atlantic will shift south through early next
week creating fresh trade winds across the central and western
Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough in the SW Atlantic extends from 25N62W to 22N65W
to the Mona Passage, which along with abundant low level moisture
in the region may support isolated passing showers over Hispaniola
and adjacent waters this evening through Sunday night. These
showers will concentrate in the Dominican Republic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends over the west
Atlantic. An upper trough north of 30N is supporting a cold front
that extends through 30N59W along 25N75W where it transitions to a
dissipating stationary front SW to the Florida Straits and the SE
Gulf of Mexico. This front is transecting an area of dry air,
thus no shower activity is noted. In the SW Atlantic, a surface
trough extends from 25N62W to 22N65W to the Mona Passage with
isolated showers within 60 nm either side of it axis. A surface
ridge covers the central Atlantic anchored by a 1019 mb high near
25N44W. An upper trough in the east Atlantic is supporting a
second cold front that extends through 32N13W over the western
most Canary Island to 27N24W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
east of the front mainly over the Canary Islands. The west
Atlantic cold front will reach from 32N50W along 25N65W to 24N80W
Sunday night with southwest gale force winds east of the front.
See Special Features above.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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