[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning...The cold front currently in the west
Atlantic will move to 32N47W along 24N70W to 25N80W with
southwest gale force winds north of 30N east of the front to 44W
starting at 04/0600 UTC. These winds will shift east with the
front through 05/0600 UTC. Please see the High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 12N17W to a weak 1012 mb low near 11N19W. The ITCZ
begins near 6N19W and continues along 4N26W 7N38W 7N44W to east
of surface trough near 9N49W. The surface trough embedded within
the ITCZ extends from 14N46W through 10N50W to 5N52W with
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 150 nm
of a line from 17N40W 12N45W to 7N48W. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are within 200 nm of the
ITCZ between 24W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper ridge dominates the Gulf tonight anchored in the
Caribbean giving the Gulf southwest flow aloft. A deep layered
trough over the desert southwest portion of the CONUS is
inducing a broad area of low pressure over northern Mexico
supporting a warm front that extends from a 1004 mb low near
25N101W across south Texas and into the Gulf waters between
Brownsville and Corpus Christi along 27N95W to 26N92W. Scattered
to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of the
front to inland over Louisiana and are moving eastward north of
27N between 87W-92W. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds
are south of the warm front that will persist through the
weekend as the front moves north over the northwest Gulf coast.
A surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high over north Alabama is
shifting east into the west Atlantic. The remnants of a
stationary front in the Straits of Florida extending from the
west Atlantic through 25N80W to 24N83W are generating scattered
showers within 45 nm of the front including the Florida Keys.
The next front will move into the west Gulf early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge is anchored over Colombia dominating the
Caribbean waters. At the surface: a surface trough extends from
the south coast of Hispaniola near 18N71W to 13N73W and a second
surface trough extends from over Colombia 10N74W along 11N77W to
11N82W. Clusters of scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms dot the central Caribbean from 11N-18N between 70W-
83W. The surface trough extending from south of Hispaniola will
move west through Sunday. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic
will shift south through early next week creating fresh trade
winds across the central and western Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are across
the island tonight due to the surface trough that extends across
the central Caribbean from the south coast near 18N71W.
Lingering moisture and possible showers will continue across the
island through the remainder of the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends over the west
Atlantic. The surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high over
north Alabama is moving into the west Atlantic. An upper trough
north of 30N is supporting a cold front that extends through
32N63W to 27N75W where it becomes stationary across the north
Bahama Islands and into the Straits of Florida near 25N80W. This
front is transecting an area of dry air, thus no shower activity
is noted. A weak surface trough is north of Puerto Rico
extending from 25N64W to 19N67W with isolated showers possible
within 75 nm east of the trough. A surface ridge covers the
central Atlantic anchored by a 1020 mb high near 26N50W. An
upper trough in the east Atlantic is supporting a second cold
front that extends through 32N17W along 27N23W to 26N32W.
Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm southeast of the
front. The west Atlantic cold front will reach from 32N47W along
24N70W to 25N80W Sunday night with southwest gale force winds
east of the front. See Special Features above.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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